813
FXUS62 KTBW 010740
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
240 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
- THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
- SOME COOLER DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK, THEN
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY QUICKLY MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TODAY AND TUESDAY PUSHING A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WE COULD SEE A FEW LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. THE MAIN
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT.
BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
DURING MIDWEEK WITH NORTHERLY WINDS USHERING IN SOME COOLER DRIER
AIR. NOT EXPECTING AS BIG OF A COOL DOWN AS THE ONE WE SAW AT THE
END OF LAST WEEK, BUT STILL NOTICEABLY DRIER.
BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL HAVE WEAKENED WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THE
FLOW VEERS TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE EXACT STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY VARIES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS
WHICH EFFECTS THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE
GFS STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE
THE ECMWF PUSHES THE BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNDAY.
EITHER WAY IT LOOKS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.
AFTER THIS THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL RATHER
UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025
SOME AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING AS PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
THE MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING IN SOME
LOCATIONS THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 7 TO 10 KNOTS DURING MID-MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN VEER TO SOUTHEAST AT AROUND
5 KNOTS BY LATE MONDAY EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND
15 KNOTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEA FOG DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT, NORTHERLY
WINDS RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LIMITED AS A WARM AND RATHER HUMID
AIRMASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME COOLER DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. HOWEVER, RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 83 69 80 60 / 10 20 50 10
FMY 85 68 81 64 / 20 20 30 10
GIF 83 67 82 59 / 10 10 50 0
SRQ 83 67 79 61 / 10 10 50 10
BKV 83 63 81 51 / 10 20 60 0
SPG 81 69 78 62 / 10 20 50 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...HURT
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