997
FXUS62 KTBW 011814
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
114 PM EST MON DEC 1 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
- THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
- SOME COOLER DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK, THEN
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY QUICKLY MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST MON DEC 1 2025
MAIN WEATHER STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH
OVER FLORIDA TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW, WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEING MAINLY NORTH OF I4. SOME STORMS THAT ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP COULD HAVE STRONG, GUSTY WINDS. CURRENTLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NATURE COAST AND INLAND,
WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED. IF SURFACE WINDS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT, SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING MORE NORTHERLY WINDS. DRIER AIR WILL
ALSO MOVE IN, MAKING CONDITIONS MORE COMFORTABLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS THE LOW TO MID
80S AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. HOWEVER, ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN
DISAGREEMENT ABOUT TIMING AND DURATION FOR THIS FRONTAL LINE. SO, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AS IT GETS CLOSER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST MON DEC 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME VICINITY PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS LONG AS THE WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, CEILINGS COULD DROP BELOW VFR AS SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE STORMS MOVE THROUGH AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING
AROUND 14-15Z. GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON, SHIFTING
MORE NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST MON DEC 1 2025
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS A FRONTAL LINE
PUSHES SOUTH OVER FLORIDA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
N/NW INTO WEDNESDAY. THOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY, THEY
SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS. WINDS REMAIN AROUND
10-15KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST MON DEC 1 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LIMITED AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
OVER FLORIDA BRINING EXTRA MOISTURE. DEW POINTS DECREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITERIA LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 69 80 62 73 / 20 50 0 0
FMY 69 81 65 79 / 10 20 0 0
GIF 66 83 60 75 / 10 40 0 0
SRQ 68 80 62 75 / 10 40 0 0
BKV 62 81 53 72 / 30 50 0 0
SPG 70 78 64 72 / 20 50 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT...SHIVELEY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page