646
FXUS62 KTBW 020042
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
742 PM EST MON DEC 1 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
- A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MIDWEEK.
UPDATE
LATEST UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER
LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO TEXAS WITH VORT MAX AND
JET STREAM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE W GULF THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE S APPALACHIANS. THE COMPLEX BUT WEAK
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF REGION
THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUD SHIELD STREAMING OVER THE FL
PENINSULA TONIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MATURES A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MOST OF
THE UPPER ENERGY LIFTING NE OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NATURE COAST WITH
WEAKENING AND LIMITED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS INTO S CENTRAL AND SW
FL LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS THE COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE
REGION IS PRODUCING INCREASING BKN-OVC MID-HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS
WINDS SHIFT FROM NE TO SE WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN PRONE
AREAS. TUES AFT 12Z EXPECT LOWERING MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY S-SW WINDS
ALONG WITH VCSH/IFR CIGS AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA AS THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH AROUND 18-19Z.
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FURTHER S INTO SW
FL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST MON DEC 1 2025
MAIN WEATHER STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH
OVER FLORIDA TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW, WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEING MAINLY NORTH OF I4. SOME STORMS THAT ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP COULD HAVE STRONG, GUSTY WINDS. CURRENTLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NATURE COAST AND INLAND,
WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED. IF SURFACE WINDS SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT, SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING MORE NORTHERLY WINDS. DRIER AIR WILL
ALSO MOVE IN, MAKING CONDITIONS MORE COMFORTABLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS THE LOW TO MID
80S AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. HOWEVER, ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN
DISAGREEMENT ABOUT TIMING AND DURATION FOR THIS FRONTAL LINE. SO, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AS IT GETS CLOSER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST MON DEC 1 2025
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS A FRONTAL LINE
PUSHES SOUTH OVER FLORIDA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
N/NW INTO WEDNESDAY. THOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY, THEY
SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS. WINDS REMAIN AROUND
10-15KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST MON DEC 1 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LIMITED AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
OVER FLORIDA BRINING EXTRA MOISTURE. DEW POINTS DECREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITERIA LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 69 80 62 73 / 20 50 0 0
FMY 69 81 65 79 / 10 20 0 0
GIF 66 83 60 75 / 10 40 0 0
SRQ 68 80 62 75 / 10 40 0 0
BKV 62 81 53 72 / 30 50 0 0
SPG 70 78 64 72 / 20 50 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT...FLANNERY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...FLEMING
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