783
FXUS62 KTBW 020858
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
358 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
- SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST TODAY, CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM ELSEWHERE.
- COOLER AND DRIER MID WEEK THEN WARMING LATE WEEK.
- NEXT ROUND OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
U/A ANALYSIS AND WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO DEPICT LONGWAVE
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE C U.S. THIS MORNING WITH THE LOCAL AREA
UNDERNEATH ZONAL, PROGRESSIVE W/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AXIS
AND RIDGING EXTENDING E/NE FROM THE FAR S GULF/NW CARIBBEAN INTO
THE W ATLANTIC. THIS GENERAL CONFIGURATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
PROPAGATING E/NE THROUGH THE FLOW FAVORING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LOCALLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
FOR TODAY, A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE E SEABOARD WILL PUSH S/E ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE E U.S. IN ADDITION TO LOW CLOUD AND
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL LOCALLY THIS MORNING, LATEST RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE E GULF THIS MORNING,
WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF
I-4 AND STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. WARM AND MOIST
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S WILL
ALSO FAVOR A SMALL WINDOW SUPPORTIVE OF A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LEVY COUNTY, WHICH HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED BY
SPC FOR THE RISK OF A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR BRIEF TORNADO THROUGH
AROUND MID AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. FORCING
WILL BE LIMITED FURTHER SOUTH AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST, HOWEVER A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS OF WCFL. ACTIVITY
LARGELY DIMINISHES LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ITSELF PUSHES ACROSS THE PENINSULA, PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED
BY A FINAL THIN LINE OF SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES, FOLLOWED BY
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDINESS LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
COOLER DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS SETTLING
OVER THE AREA, AND AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO
UPPER 70S SOUTH. THE COOLER DRIER AIR COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES NORTH OF I-4 ON THURSDAY MORNING, AND LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTHWARD. A WARMING TREND ENSUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S, AND CONTINUES INTO THE MID
70S TO MID 80S ON FRI-SAT WHILE LOWS WARM THROUGH THE 50S INTO
THE 60S.
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WORK
INTO THE AREA BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VARYING SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE INFLUENCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROPAGATING ACROSS
THE SE U.S. THAT WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE IMPACTS LOCALLY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BOUNDARY, HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA MAY RECEIVE SOME HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OVER THE NATURE COAST WHERE WPC
HAS PLACED A MARGINAL RISK OVER LEVY COUNTY FOR THE DAY 5 PERIOD
(SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) IN THE LATEST EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING S/SW WINDS ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING, PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VCSH INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR TPA/PIE/LAL, AND PROB30 FOR SHOWERS/CIGS MAINLY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOR REMAINING TERMINALS GIVEN LOWER CHANCES.
WINDS VEER W/NW DURING THE EVENING WITH FROPA AND DECREASE, WITH
POST-FRONTAL PERIOD OF MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS EVENING INTO TUE NIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
ACTIVE MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS
THE WATERS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS THIS MORNING GRADUALLY VEERING TO
N/NW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND DECREASING. CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS
LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS, WHILE REMAINING
JUST BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS FOR REMAINING WATERS. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERS SOUTH OF THE WATERS MID WEEK THEN DRIFTS BACK
NORTH OVER THE WATERS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL
RAIN CHANCES AND LIKELY INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PRECEDED BY SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN
BEHIND IT THROUGH MID WEEK, HOWEVER MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL
RAIN CHANCES, WITH CONTINUED LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 81 62 74 55 / 50 0 0 0
FMY 82 64 79 57 / 20 10 0 0
GIF 82 60 76 53 / 40 10 0 0
SRQ 80 63 75 53 / 40 10 0 0
BKV 82 53 73 46 / 50 0 0 0
SPG 79 63 73 58 / 40 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
HURT
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