358
FXUS62 KTBW 021729
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1229 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND DRIER MID WEEK THEN WARMING LATE WEEK.
- NEXT ROUND OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH OVER THE PENINSULA TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
MORE SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH, THOUGH THESE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE. GUSTY SW WINDS ARE ALSO BEING OBSERVED OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TOMORROW, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN, SWINGING THE WINDS MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL
ALSO HELP FILTER IN COOLER, DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 60S TO LOW 80S AND
WILL FEEL COOLER AS THE DAY GOES ON AS DRIER AIR FILLS IN.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
GETTING DOWN TO THE 40S AND 50S. HOWEVER, BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK IN THE 70S AND 80S.
JUST WHEN TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE, ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL INCONSISTENT
WITH STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS NEXT COLD FRONT, BUT CURRENT
FORECAST DOES SHOW A BIT MORE OF A COOL DOWN COMPARED TO THIS FRONT.
IN OTHER WORDS, IF YOU DO NOT GET ANY OF THE RAINFALL WITH TODAY'S
COLD FRONT, THERE'S ALWAYS THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS LINGER AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH
THE AREA, BRINGING ALONG LOW CEILINGS. LOW CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING AROUND 14-15Z.
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY SW/W WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT MORE
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
UNFAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
GUSTY SW/W WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY AND DECREASE TOMORROW. QUIET
CONDITIONS LAST A UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND, INCREASING
MARINE HAZARDS ONCE AGAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. RH VALUES
DIP THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER,
VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 63 73 55 78 / 20 0 0 0
FMY 65 79 57 81 / 20 0 0 0
GIF 61 76 53 78 / 20 0 0 0
SRQ 63 75 53 78 / 20 0 0 0
BKV 53 72 44 77 / 20 0 0 0
SPG 65 73 58 76 / 20 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT...SHIVELEY
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