509
FXUS62 KTBW 030007
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
707 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND DRIER MID WEEK THEN WARMING LATE WEEK.
- NEXT ROUND OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 707 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE COLD FRONT IS
JUST NOW GETTING INTO NORTHERN LEVY COUNTY. MOST OF THE REGION
STILL REMAINS IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
IN RESPONSE, A FEW LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER, MOST AREAS HAVE SEEN NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
UNFORTUNATELY, THAT IS UNLIKELY TO CHANGE.
AS THE FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT, COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION AND A COUPLE NICER DAYS WILL FOLLOW. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS TRACKING WELL WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO CHANGES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
LOW CIGS ARE THE MAIN IMPACT OVERNIGHT, ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. FOR TAMPA
BAY AREA TERMINALS, MVFR CIGS ARE STILL FAVORED, BUT SOME IFR COULD
SNEAK IN. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT CURRENTLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR
EXPLICIT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. HAVE OPTED TO SHOW SCT CLOUDS
INSTEAD. ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SWFL, IFR CIGS ARE MORE LIKELY. VFR
WEATHER RETURNS LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH OVER THE PENINSULA TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
MORE SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH, THOUGH THESE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE. GUSTY SW WINDS ARE ALSO BEING OBSERVED OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TOMORROW, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN, SWINGING THE WINDS MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL
ALSO HELP FILTER IN COOLER, DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 60S TO LOW 80S AND
WILL FEEL COOLER AS THE DAY GOES ON AS DRIER AIR FILLS IN.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
GETTING DOWN TO THE 40S AND 50S. HOWEVER, BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK IN THE 70S AND 80S.
JUST WHEN TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE, ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL INCONSISTENT
WITH STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS NEXT COLD FRONT, BUT CURRENT
FORECAST DOES SHOW A BIT MORE OF A COOL DOWN COMPARED TO THIS FRONT.
IN OTHER WORDS, IF YOU DO NOT GET ANY OF THE RAINFALL WITH TODAY'S
COLD FRONT, THERE'S ALWAYS THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
UNFAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
GUSTY SW/W WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY AND DECREASE TOMORROW. QUIET
CONDITIONS LAST A UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND, INCREASING
MARINE HAZARDS ONCE AGAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. RH VALUES
DIP THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER,
VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 63 73 55 78 / 20 0 0 0
FMY 65 79 57 81 / 20 0 0 0
GIF 61 76 53 78 / 20 0 0 0
SRQ 63 75 53 78 / 20 0 0 0
BKV 53 72 44 77 / 20 0 0 0
SPG 65 73 58 76 / 20 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...ANDERSON
DECISION SUPPORT...ANDERSON
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ANDERSON
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