864
FXUS62 KTBW 030701
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
201 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND DRIER THROUGH THURSDAY THEN WARMING TREND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- NEXT ROUND OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
- IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PENINSULA THIS MORNING BETWEEN BROAD
TROUGHING ALOFT ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING FROM
THE FAR S GULF/NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLANTIC. A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS SWFL AND WILL LIKELY
STALL AND REMAIN IN THE S FL/FL STRAITS VICINITY THROUGH LATE
WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH/SE U.S. THIS WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
FRONTAL WAVES WHILE THE LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK
NORTH OVER THE PENINSULA LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN
CHANCES. WHILE RIDGING MAY HOLD JUST ENOUGH ON SATURDAY TO KEEP
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO NORTHERN AND NATURE COAST
LOCATIONS, GUIDANCE INDICATES THE RIDGING SHIFTING E INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE,
ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT N/E OVER THE PENINSULA AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHING BACK S/E ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO
AREA WIDE SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. COOLER DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE C/E U.S. FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
POST-FRONTAL MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
REMAIN PRIMARY CONCERN, BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR AROUND MIDDAY.
GENERALLY N/NW WINDS EXPECTED, HIGHEST IN AFTERNOON WHILE
REMAINING BELOW 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SETTLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING
COLD FRONT. QUIETER MARINE CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND
WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MINIMUM
RH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 75 55 79 62 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 81 59 82 63 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 77 54 79 60 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 75 55 79 61 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 73 46 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 73 57 77 64 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
HURT
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