282
FXUS62 KTBW 031756
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1256 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND DRIER THROUGH THURSDAY THEN WARMING TREND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- NEXT ROUND OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
- IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025
BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RIDGING SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE STATE. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. TOMORROW WILL BE OUR COOLEST MORNING WITH THIS
LATEST FRONT, BUT LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND
60 SOUTH. CONDITIONS THEN MODERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
FOR THE WEEKEND, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS BACK
NORTHWARD. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND BRING
RAIN CHANCES BACK MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WHOLE AREA ON SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER
AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025
SOME MVFR CIGS HAVE LINGERED LONGER THAN EXPECTED AT SOME OF THE
COASTAL SITES, BUT STILL THINK THEY WILL LIFT/SCATTER OUT SOONER
RATHER THAN LATER. OTHERWISE, VFR IS EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025
NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT BECOME EASTERLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS THEN TURN SOUTHERLY FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUING, THOUGH RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 57 80 63 81 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 60 83 64 84 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 55 79 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 55 79 62 80 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 47 79 55 83 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 60 77 65 79 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
CARLISLE
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