470
FXUS62 KTBW 041116
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
616 AM EST THU DEC 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
- NEXT ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM EST THU DEC 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 AM EST THU DEC 4 2025
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE PENINSULA THIS MORNING
BETWEEN BROAD CONUS TROUGHING AND RIDGING SOUTH OF THE STATE. AT
THE SURFACE, A STALLED BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS FAR S FL/FL
STRAITS WITH RIDGING OVER THE SE U.S. EXTENDING S INTO THE STATE.
SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT AND ACROSS
THE SRN/SE U.S. INTO THE WEEKEND WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
FRONTAL WAVES ALONG THE LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS
BACK NORTH OVER THE PENINSULA, WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN
CHANCES LOCALLY AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS N/E ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND. A SHARPER SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE SE U.S.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL ULTIMATELY SHUNT THE BOUNDARY S/E ACROSS
THE PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
AND RAIN CHANCES TO AN END WITH COOLER DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO
THE AREA AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE C/E U.S.
COOL DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK
BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING.
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING WITH TEMPS STARTING OUT IN THE 40S AND 50S,
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS WARM A FEW DEGREES MORE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S, WHILE CLOUDINESS GRADUALLY INCREASES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES. POST-FRONTAL TEMPS EARLY
NEXT WEEK COOL NOTICEABLY WITH MORNING LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
40S/50S WITH A FEW 30S POSSIBLE NORTH, AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
60S/70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 215 AM EST THU DEC 4 2025
EASTERLY WINDS TODAY GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE
WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR AND
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVELS BRIEFLY
BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO MID WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 215 AM EST THU DEC 4 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE AREA TODAY
BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY
EXPAND FROM FAR NORTHERN AND NATURE COAST LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE DIMINISHING ON
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 80 64 80 69 / 0 0 0 20
FMY 83 64 83 67 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 80 61 84 66 / 0 0 0 10
SRQ 80 62 80 68 / 0 0 0 10
BKV 79 56 82 62 / 0 0 10 30
SPG 78 66 78 70 / 0 0 0 20
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
AVIATION...CARLISLE
PREVIOUS...HURT
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