933
FXUS62 KTBW 240721
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
221 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE, WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 221 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
IN THE UPPER LEVEL, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS IN FIRM CONTROL OVER THE
GULF WATERS AND SOUTHEASTERN US, KEEPING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND HOLD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS. THE BIGGEST
WEATHER CONCERN WILL INVOLVE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
AND LIFTING OUT JUST AFTER SUNRISE EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY, MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED, SO RAIN CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10
PERCENT OR LESS. MUCH COLDER AIR IS FORECAST TO ADVECT IN BEHIND THE
FRONT HOWEVER, WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
OVER THE NATURE COAST TUESDAY MORNING, AND 40S TO MID 50S FARTHER
SOUTH. BREEZY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY, RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE NORTHERN
NATURE COAST, TO UPPER 60S IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 221 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL INVOLVE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING EARLY
THIS MORNING, WHICH COULD IMPACT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH JUST
AFTER SUNRISE. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR FOG WILL BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AROUND KLAL, AND ACROSS THE NATURE COAST COUNTIES TO THE
NORTH OF AREA TAF SITES. HOWEVER, FOG CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 221 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH EAST AND NORTHEAST
FLOW TODAY BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 221 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. PATCHY HIGH
DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 80 60 79 60 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 82 58 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 81 57 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 80 58 78 59 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 81 50 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 79 62 77 62 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
FLEMING
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