772
FXUS62 KTBW 241930
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
230 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE, WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR DRY
WEATHER AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING. THE
ONLY ISSUE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG EACH NIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR FOG STILL
APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST, BUT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVER THE WEEKEND WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME SEA
FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. DEPENDING ON HOW HIGH THE
DEW POINTS GET OVER THE WEEKEND SOME OF THIS SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP
FURTHER SOUTH INTO AND AROUND TAMPA BAY.
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION, BUT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH
COOLER DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
HOW COLD IT ACTUALLY GETS THOUGH DEPENDS ON WHICH GLOBAL MODEL
YOU LIKE. THE GFS HAS CONTINUED RATHER COLD WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NATURE COAST, WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE WARMER. FOR NOW THE POTENTIAL TO
SEE SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NATURE COAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
INLAND AREAS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MAJORITY OF THIS FOG
SHOULD BE REMAIN SHALLOW IF IT DEVELOPS AT THE TAF SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING AT LAL WHERE WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT TPA, PIE AND SRQ THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP. WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT THIS
EVENING THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS REMAINING BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME LAND FOG SPREADING INTO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EARLY IN
THE MORNINGS LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS INCREASING TO ADVISORY LEVELS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE EASTERN GULF WILL KEEP RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 59 79 59 77 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 58 81 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 57 81 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 58 78 58 77 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 50 80 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 63 77 62 75 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
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