399
FXUS62 KTBW 250750
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
250 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE EACH NIGHT AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA, WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY
THIS WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR WARM AND SUNNY AFTERNOONS
WITH NEGLIGIBLE RAIN CHANCES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERN WILL COME FROM FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT, LIFTING OUT
JUST AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING. THE GREATEST FOG COVERAGE IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NATURE COAST COUNTIES AND IN LOW LYING
AND NORMALLY FOG PRONE AREAS FARTHER SOUTH.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE EASTERN US, PULLING A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT MONDAY NIGHT, BUT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN. WHILE SOME COOLER AIR COULD ALREADY BE ADVECTING
IN BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY, MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE, SO THE COLDEST AIR DOES NOT LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NATURE COAST COUNTIES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE PERIODS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT AREA TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD LIFT OUT BY AROUND
14Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN HOLDING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE
WATERS BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS, WITH RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND WILL INCREASE WINDS TO AROUND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY
MONDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 79 59 77 60 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 81 58 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 80 56 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 79 58 77 59 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 80 52 77 52 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 77 61 76 62 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
FLEMING
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