360
FXUS62 KTBW 260139
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
839 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE EACH NIGHT AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 817 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT, WHICH COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE
IN SOME AREAS. THUS, CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
OVERNIGHT TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT ANY FOG HEADLINES WOULD BE
NEEDED, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE
DEVELOPMENT MAY BECOME SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES THIS
EVENING AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY DROPPING INTO THE 50S, THOUGH A FEW
COASTAL AREAS MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW 60S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO OVERHEAD. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP WARM
AND SUNNY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE
ONLY ISSUES BEING PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT. AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, A TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND THEN DIG SOUTHWARD, PULLING A
COLD FRONT OVER FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED BUT WE COULD SEE JUST A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT (POPS NO
HIGHER THAN 20% OVER MAINLY COASTAL AREAS). BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL GIVE US A PERIOD OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND LOWS
NEARING FREEZING FOR THE NATURE COAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, THOUGH OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF FOG IS LOW AT THIS TIME. ANY FOG/STRATUS THAT
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 14Z FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT LESS THAN 5 KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 153 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE, THEN WINDS INCREASE NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR MID-WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 153 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IS LIKELY EACH
DAY, WITH LOCALLY DENSE AREAS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 59 78 60 77 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 58 80 57 79 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 56 80 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 59 78 59 77 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 52 78 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 63 75 63 76 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...GIARRATANA
DECISION SUPPORT...HURT
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...HURT
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