826
FXUS62 KTBW 261216
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
716 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH 9AM.
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE EACH NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 714 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
THE DAY IS OFF TO A FOGGY START FOR MANY ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO
EFFICIENTLY COOL TO THE DEW POINT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS
CREATED A CLASSIC SETUP FOR RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER, NOT
EVERY LOCATION HAS SEEN FOG THIS MORNING. MOST NOTABLY, A GOOD
PORTION OF SWFL, ESPECIALLY LEE COUNTY, HAS REMAINED CLEAR. IN OTHER
AREAS FARTHER NORTH, IT IS STILL PATCHY IN NATURE. AS THIS IS NOT AN
ADVECTIVE FOG EVENT, THERE SHOULD BE VERY RAPID IMPROVEMENT NOW THAT
THE SUN IS BEGINNING TO COME UP ACROSS THE REGION. THE SUN WILL
ERODE THE TOP OF THE FOG LAYER AND HEAT THE SURFACE TO ERODE THE
BOTTOM, AND ANY LIGHT BREEZE WILL MIX IT OUT. THUS, MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD RETURN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
OVERALL, THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 714 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS,
WITH MOST AREAS SEEING CLEARING BY 14Z. ANY LINGERING IMPACTS SHOULD
BE CLEARED BY 15Z. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT FOG WILL RETURN
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE HIGH PROBABILITY, FOG WAS ADDED
FOR ALL TERMINALS STARTING BETWEEN 08Z TO 10Z TONIGHT. IT COULD,
HOWEVER, BE AS EARLY AS 06Z. FOG WILL SIMILARLY PLAY AN IMPACT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL.
OTHERWISE, DRY, VFR WEATHER LASTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, KEEPING WARM
AND STABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EACH
AFTERNOON AS RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS, FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN EACH NIGHT,
WITH THE GREATEST FOG CHANCES OVER THE NATURE COAST COUNTIES AND
ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AS WELL AS IN LOW LYING AND NORMALLY FOG
PRONE AREAS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN US, PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY DRY, BUT DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO POOL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT OVER
THE GULF AND PUSH INTO COASTAL AREAS. COOLER AIR WILL START TO
FILL INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE NATURE COAST, WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVER THE NATURE COAST,
WITH SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE. FARTHER SOUTH, LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S FROM AROUND THE TAMPA
BAY AND INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR SOUTH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 237 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS, WITH RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 237 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOME AREAS OF FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 60 77 61 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 81 57 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 80 55 79 59 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 77 59 77 59 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 78 52 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 76 62 75 64 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...FLANNERY
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