872
FXUS62 KTBW 261851
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
151 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE EACH NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A VERY
LIGHT NW FLOW ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE, WITH THE SEABREEZE NOW
OBSERVABLE ON SATELLITE AND MAKING ITS WAY INLAND ALONG THE COAST.
THE SEA BREEZE IS WORKING TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES, WITH COASTAL
SITES IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S WHILE PLACES INLAND ARE APPROACHING 80
DEGREES. OVERALL, ITS A BEAUTIFUL DAY, AND LOOKS TO BE A
BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND AS THIS WEATHER CONTINUES.
THE ONLY WEATHER IMPACT OF NOTE IS THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY HOURS EACH DAY. THE CLEAR SKIES, CALM
WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE THE PERFECT SETUP FOR
THIS TO OCCUR. IN AREAS, THIS FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. RESIDENTS
AND VISITORS ALIKE SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME FOR TRAVEL
IN THE EARLY TO MID-MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY.
RIDGING STAYS IN CONTROL UNTIL A PATTERN CHANGE TAKES PLACE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY. AS
THIS HAPPENS, AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
SOMETIME ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THE OVERALL STABLE AIRMASS AND EXTREMELY
LIMITED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, IT DOES NOT CURRENTLY LOOK VERY
FAVORABLE FOR THIS FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE FAIRLY STRONG; AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT'S PASSAGE. THIS WILL
FAVOR INCREASING WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS ALREADY MENTIONED, THIS FRONT LOOKS TO KICK OFF A FEW DAYS OF
CHILLY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 30S AND 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS BEFORE ANOTHER
REINFORCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH TO EFFECTIVELY HOLD
CONDITIONS STEADY. THIS WILL BE A NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES
AND - DEPENDING ON ONE'S PREFERENCE - EITHER BRING A WELCOME OR
UNWELCOME CHANGE TO WHAT HAS OTHERWISE BEEN A LARGELY BENIGN AND
STATIC PATTERN OVER THE LAST WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
FOG WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAVORABLE BEGINNING AFTER 06Z AND POTENTIALLY LASTING AS
LATE AS 15Z. HOWEVER, TAFS CURRENTLY REFLECT THE MOST LIKELY TIME-
FRAME AND THE LOWEST CIG/VIS COMBOS WHERE FOG POTENTIAL IS
GREATEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN UNTIL THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 149 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
SOME PATCHES OF FOG COULD DRIFT OVER NEARSHORE WATERS EACH
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AND PERIOD OF POOR MARINE CONDITIONS DOES NOT COME BACK INTO
PLAY UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 149 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
DRY, STABLE AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE LOW DISPERSIONS AND A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR FOG EACH NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, A PERIOD OF DRIER AND WINDIER WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA. CRITICAL RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS FORECAST WITH THE FRONT NEXT
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 60 76 62 78 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 57 79 58 80 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 56 79 60 80 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 60 77 60 78 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 53 77 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 64 75 65 76 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
FLANNERY
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