790
FXUS62 KTBW 270742
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
242 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY AND HOLD THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHEASTERN US AND SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS KEEPING A WARM AND STABLE AIRMASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERN WILL COME FROM PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING EACH NIGHT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, WITH THE HIGHEST FOG CHANCES OVER THE
NATURE COAST COUNTIES SOUTH THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY AREA, AND OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE FOG WILL LIFT OUT BY
A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE, WITH SUNNY SKIES THEN ALLOWING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP TO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. BROAD
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE STACKED RIDGING WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES NEAR
ZERO THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN US EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BRING ABOUT A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN, PULLING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY MONDAY EVENING. WHILE
SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE LAND
AREAS, WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR THE COAST.
MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SETUP BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT, KEEPING HIGHS ON TUESDAY SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NATURE COAST, AND FALL
INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S FROM AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AND
INTERSTATE 4 SOUTH. AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND
SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY, WEAKENING THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE, BUT KEEPING TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 241 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH AFTER SUNRISE. FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT OUT
FROM AROUND 13-14Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO HOLD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. MORE FOG IS FORECAST TO RETURN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 241 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL HOLD THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS, WITH RAIN
CHANCES REMAINING NEAR ZERO. WINDS WILL PICK UP MONDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH
WINDS THEN SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE NORTH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 241 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 61 78 61 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 79 58 81 59 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 79 59 79 58 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 76 59 77 60 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 77 55 79 53 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 76 63 77 63 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
FLEMING
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