656
FXUS62 KTBW 272324
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
624 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY AND HOLD THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 118 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL START TO
MOVE EAST AND BE LOCATED OVER THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN VERY LIGHT WINDS AND HUMID CONDITIONS AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. BECAUSE OF THIS WE CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. AFTER THE FOG LIFTS WE
WILL SEE SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH ANOTHER QUICK WARM UP
WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL START TO PUSH THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST. WE CAN EXPECT ONE MORE FOGGY MORNING WITH SUNNY SKIES
AND HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE STRONG COLD
WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH FLORIDA. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS (AROUND 20 PERCENT) MAINLY ALONG THE WEST COAST AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH BUT MOST OF US WILL BE STAYING DRY.
COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY DIVE IN BEHIND THIS FRONT. HIGHS WILL ONLY
BE IN THE 50'S ALONG THE NATURE COAST WITH AREAS SOUTH OF I-4
SEEING HIGHS IN THE 60'S. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN
PARTS OF THE NATURE COAST WITH ALMOST ALL OF US AWAY FROM THE
COAST WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30'S. THIS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
60'S EACH AFTERNOON AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30'S TO LOW 40'S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
AREAS OF FOG, SOME LOCALLY DENSE, ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND THIS COULD RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR
RESTRICTIONS FOR MOST OR POSSIBLY ALL TERMINALS. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENTS TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT
14Z/15Z SUNDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA WILL ALSO YIELD VERY LIGHT WINDS WITH WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE
NE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NW BY THE AFTERNOON AND
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 KTS OR LESS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 118 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY GIVING US LIGHT
WIND OVER THE GULF THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. OUR MAIN CONCERN DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD WILL MORNING WILL BE WIDESPREAD FOG OVER LAND IN
THE MORNING HOURS THAT COULD ADVECT OVER THE WATER BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A STRONG AND QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO OUR WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 118 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD FOG SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING. A STRONG
QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
QUICKLY DRY US OUT WITH CRITICAL RHS FOR TUESDAY AWAY FROM THE
COAST. WE WILL BE LOOKING AT EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH CRITICAL RHS FOR THE WHOLE AREA DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20'S FOR
MOST. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG
WARNINGS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 61 77 61 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 79 58 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 79 58 79 58 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 77 58 77 60 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 77 54 79 53 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 77 63 75 64 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...GIARRATANA
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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