349
FXUS62 KTBW 281222
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
722 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY AND HOLD THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF IS SPRAWLED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, KEEPING
STABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE. UNDER THIS RIDGING, CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS, AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
IS LEADING TO ANOTHER FOGGY MORNING, WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG
EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AS A
RESULT, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE
AREA AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN WARM BACK UP INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REPEAT WITH MORE FOG TONIGHT, AND ANOTHER
WARM AND SUNNY AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
BY LATE MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA, AND WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MAINLY OVER THE GULF WATERS AND COULD PUSH
INTO THE COASTAL AREAS AT TIMES LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, BUT
THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO HAVE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES. COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING IN NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR FROM AROUND
INTERSTATE 4 NORTHWARD BY TUESDAY MORNING, AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST
MORNING, WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST COUNTIES, AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FARTHER SOUTH.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO FLORIDA FROM THE NORTHWEST, WITH LIGHT WINDS CUTTING OFF THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY MODERATE
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
WIDESPREAD FOG THIS MORNING IS BRINGING IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS TO
MANY TERMINALS. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY TO LIFT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AFTER THAT WE CAN EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE DAYTIME HOURS. WE WILL BE EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR AND
LIFR CIGS AND VIS AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS FOG DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL HOLD THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS, WITH RAIN
CHANCES REMAINING NEAR ZERO. WINDS WILL PICK UP MONDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY, WITH WINDS THEN SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE NORTH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS TODAY OR MONDAY, BUT AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 60 77 51 / 0 0 0 10
FMY 81 59 79 59 / 0 0 0 10
GIF 80 57 79 51 / 0 0 0 10
SRQ 78 59 76 52 / 0 0 0 10
BKV 79 53 77 41 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 76 63 76 54 / 0 0 0 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL
HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND
CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-
INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-
SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...FLEMING
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