729
FXUS62 KTBW 281854
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
154 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY MORNING.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY AND HOLD THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
AFTER ANOTHER FOGGY MORNING CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND TEMPERATURES
ARE RISING. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80 DEGREES AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE VERY SIMILIAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH
WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING IN THE AFTERNOON.
BIG CHANGES WILL BE ON THE WAY MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND IT COLD AIR WILL BE QUICKLY
FILTERING IN. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50'S NORTH OF I-
4 AND BARELY GET TO 60 TO THE SOUTH. OUR COLDEST MORNING WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH AT OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NATURE
COAST AND 30'S FOR EVERYONE ELSE AWAY FOR THE INTERMITTENT COAST
LINE. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER WITH FEELS LIKE
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR ALMOST ALL OF US. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILIAR TO TUESDAY WITH MOST OF US JUST
AROUND 60 DEGREES. WE WILL BE SEEING A SLOW WARM UP STARTING ON
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE LOW 70'S. THIS WARM
UP WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
WE WILL SEE ANOTHER REPEAT OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WITH WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO IFR AND
LIFR CIGS AND VIS FOR MOST TERMINAL UNTIL THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
BESIDE THAT WE WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 148 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH THE BIGGEST CONCERN
BEING FOG THAT WILL DEVELOP ON LAND BEFORE PUSHING OUT INTO THE GULF
MONDAY MORNING. A BIG CHANCE WILL BE COMING OUR WAY STARTING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND PICK UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. BY TUESDAY EVENING WINDS WILL CALM DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 15 TO
20 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS COME DOWN TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 148 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH OVERNIGHT LEADING TO ANOTHER
MORNING OF WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRY US OUT BRING CRITICAL RHS
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE DRIEST DAY WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WITH RHS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20'S FOR THE
INTERIOR. WINDS, HOWEVER, WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG
WARNINGS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 79 60 76 49 / 0 0 10 0
FMY 82 59 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 80 57 79 47 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 78 57 76 51 / 0 0 0 10
BKV 80 53 77 40 / 0 0 10 0
SPG 77 62 75 53 / 0 0 10 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...FLANNERY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...FLANNERY
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