627
FXUS62 KTBW 290149
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
849 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY MORNING.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY AND HOLD THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 847 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
LATEST NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN AREA
OF SEA FOG NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND WATERS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE NATURE COAST WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM CEDAR KEY
SHOWING REDUCED VISIBILITY VALUES. GIVEN THESE TRENDS, ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MARINE ZONES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING, THOUGH THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS THE NIGHT
CONTINUES GIVEN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER THAN THESE ADJUSTMENTS, NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
AFTER ANOTHER FOGGY MORNING CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND TEMPERATURES
ARE RISING. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80 DEGREES AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE VERY SIMILIAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH
WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING IN THE AFTERNOON.
BIG CHANGES WILL BE ON THE WAY MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND IT COLD AIR WILL BE QUICKLY
FILTERING IN. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50'S NORTH OF I-
4 AND BARELY GET TO 60 TO THE SOUTH. OUR COLDEST MORNING WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH AT OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NATURE
COAST AND 30'S FOR EVERYONE ELSE AWAY FOR THE INTERMITTENT COAST
LINE. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER WITH FEELS LIKE
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR ALMOST ALL OF US. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILIAR TO TUESDAY WITH MOST OF US JUST
AROUND 60 DEGREES. WE WILL BE SEEING A SLOW WARM UP STARTING ON
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE LOW 70'S. THIS WARM
UP WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 843 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT, WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE IN SOME AREAS.
THUS, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS AND THE FOG MAY LINGER THROUGH ABOUT
13Z/14Z MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON MONDAY AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF. IN
ADDITION, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY POSSIBLY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHRA, BUT
WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE CURRENT TAF ISSUANCE
FOR NOW AS RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE SW THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT SHIFT TO THE NW BY MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 148 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH THE BIGGEST CONCERN
BEING FOG THAT WILL DEVELOP ON LAND BEFORE PUSHING OUT INTO THE GULF
MONDAY MORNING. A BIG CHANCE WILL BE COMING OUR WAY STARTING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND PICK UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. BY TUESDAY EVENING WINDS WILL CALM DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 15 TO
20 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS COME DOWN TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 148 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH OVERNIGHT LEADING TO ANOTHER
MORNING OF WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRY US OUT BRING CRITICAL RHS
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE DRIEST DAY WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WITH RHS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20'S FOR THE
INTERIOR. WINDS, HOWEVER, WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG
WARNINGS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 79 60 76 49 / 0 0 10 0
FMY 82 59 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 80 57 79 47 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 78 57 76 51 / 0 0 0 10
BKV 80 53 77 40 / 0 0 10 0
SPG 77 62 75 53 / 0 0 10 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...GIARRATANA
DECISION SUPPORT...PEARCE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...PEARCE
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