650
FXUS62 KTBW 290656
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
156 AM EST MON DEC 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL LIFT OUT BY MID MORNING.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AND HOLD THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 AM EST MON DEC 29 2025
EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING THAT
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE ONCE AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION,
WITH LOWERED VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGH
JUST AFTER SUNRISE AND THEN LARGELY LIFT OUT AROUND 8-10 AM. THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE NEAR THE COAST FROM AROUND THE
TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD ALONG THE NATURE COAST, WHERE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG WHICH COULD
MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW.
AFTER THE FOG CLEARS OUT, THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL COME FROM
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A NARROW LINE OF
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BRINGING SOME LOW END
RAIN CHANCES INTO THE AREA, WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF
TAMPA BAY AND RIGHT ALONG THE COAST FROM THE TAMPA BAY SOUTH. THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL START TO DROP
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE NATURE COAST
COUNTIES EXPECTED TO SEE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, AND WIND
CHILLS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. BREEZY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY,
THEN THE COLDEST AIR IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWS APPROACH
FREEZING ACROSS THE NATURE COAST COUNTIES AND OVER THE INTERIOR AS
FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEASTERN HILLSBOROUGH AND NORTHWESTERN POLK
COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE DROPPING OFF BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH, AND UPPER
20S TO AROUND 40 CENTRAL AND SOUTH, WITH THE LOWEST VALUES AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING DROPPING BACK
INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER THE INTERIOR DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING. APART FROM THE COLD TEMPERATURES, THE OTHER IMPACT FROM
THE FRONT WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES
FROM AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING.
THE NEXT TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
PULLING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US TO THE NORTH OF
FLORIDA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND PERHAPS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EST MON DEC 29 2025
AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
MORNING ONCE AGAIN, WITH PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
THREATENING ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH JUST AFTER SUNRISE. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY AROUND 13-15Z AND HOLD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TAMPA BAY AREA TERMINALS BY AROUND 00-03Z
THIS EVENING, BUT CHANCES OF RAIN AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FILL IN
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 156 AM EST MON DEC 29 2025
AREAS OF SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE MORNING TODAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS, THEN
BREEZY NORTHWEST AND NORTH WINDS WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
TONIGHT AND EXPAND SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT, WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND HOLDS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 156 AM EST MON DEC 29 2025
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIFT OUT LATER THIS MORNING, WITH WARM AND MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS HOLDING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD
BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE NATURE COAST. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILL INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
RED FLAG CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 47 61 39 / 10 10 0 0
FMY 79 54 67 39 / 0 10 0 0
GIF 80 45 62 35 / 0 10 0 0
SRQ 76 49 62 41 / 10 10 0 0
BKV 77 37 60 28 / 10 10 0 0
SPG 76 50 60 45 / 10 10 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
HARDEE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-
INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-
PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL
LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT
20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE
HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
FLEMING
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page