948
FXUS62 KTBW 291909
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
209 PM EST MON DEC 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AND HOLD THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 PM EST MON DEC 29 2025
BIG CHANGES WILL BE ON THE WAY TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND IT COLD AIR WILL BE QUICKLY
FILTERING IN. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50'S NORTH OF I-
4 AND BARELY GET TO 60 TO THE SOUTH. OUR COLDEST MORNING WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH AT OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NATURE
COAST AND 30'S FOR EVERYONE ELSE AWAY FOR THE INTERMITTENT COAST
LINE. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER WITH FEELS LIKE
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR ALMOST ALL OF US. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILIAR TO TUESDAY WITH MOST OF US JUST
AROUND 60 DEGREES. WE WILL BE SEEING A SLOW WARM UP STARTING ON
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE LOW 70'S. THIS WARM
UP WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EST MON DEC 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 156 PM EST MON DEC 29 2025
A BIG CHANGE WILL BE COMING TONIGHT. WINDS HAVE ALREADY
STARTED TO PICK UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND PICK UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY
EVENING WINDS WILL CALM DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE
NORTH. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS
COME DOWN TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 156 PM EST MON DEC 29 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL DRY US OUT BRING CRITICAL RHS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE DRIEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH RHS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20'S FOR THE INTERIOR. WINDS, HOWEVER, WILL
REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG WARNINGS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 47 60 40 / 10 10 0 0
FMY 79 53 66 40 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 81 45 60 35 / 0 10 0 0
SRQ 76 48 61 41 / 10 10 0 0
BKV 78 38 58 28 / 20 10 0 0
SPG 75 51 60 46 / 10 10 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-INLAND
CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND LEVY-SUMTER.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 9 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT
20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE
HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...FLANNERY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...FLANNERY
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