089
FXUS62 KTBW 301219
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
719 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COLDER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF FREEZING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WHILE
THE ENTIRE AREA EXPERIENCES VERY LOW WIND CHILLS TONIGHT.
- HAZARDOUS BOATING AND BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
INEXPERIENCED BOATERS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS AND BEACHGOERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF GOING INTO
THE WATER AS EVEN THE BEST SWIMMERS CAN BE SWEPT AWAY FROM SHORE.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST TODAY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. THIS CAN LEAD TO ERRATIC FIRE
BEHAVIOR, EVEN THOUGH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 719 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
THE DAY IS OFF TO A MUCH CHILLIER AND BREEZY START THAN IT HAS BEEN
IN AWHILE. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW TEMPS IN THE
LOW 40S TO THE MID 50S. A DRY, STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION, ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO FALL CONSIDERABLY. IN
SUMMARY, IT FEELS LIKE WINTER ONCE AGAIN.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ASSUMING NO DRAMATIC SHIFTS AS 12Z
GUIDANCE COMES IN, THE FREEZE WATCH WILL NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
FREEZE WARNING LATER THIS MORNING. ALSO CONTINUING TO TRACK RH
VALUES AND WINDS FOR FIRE DANGER. WHILE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED, THERE IS STILL AN ELEVATED DANGER WHEN COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS AND WEEKS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
QUIET VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY, NO
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
A DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
USHERING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR ONLY CLIMBING SLOWLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S
SOUTH. A LARGE AREA OF COLD AIR STRATO-CU WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN GULF TODAY DUE TO THE STRONG CAA OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARM WATERS OF THE GULF. THE CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY ADVECT ONSHORE,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE PINELLAS COUNTY AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL CREATE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT...AND COMBINED WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S. A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR LEVY,
CITRUS, SUMTER, AND HERNANDO COUNTIES. GIVEN IDEAL DRAINAGE FLOW
SET-UP OVER THE INTERIOR, FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY EXTEND FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS POLK, HARDEE, DESOTO AND HIGHLANDS COUNTY FOR LESS
THAN 2 HOURS AT ISOLATED COLDER LOCATIONS, JUST TOUCHING 32
DEGREES. CRITERIA FOR A FREEZE WARNING IS TEMPERATURES LESS THAN
OR EQUAL TO 32 FOR 2 OR MORE HOURS ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA...SO
NOT ANTICIPATING A FREEZE WARNING THAT FAR SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WHERE THE FREEZE WATCH
IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
THE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTH UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S NORTH, MID TO
UPPER 30S CENTRAL, AND LOWER 40S SOUTH. WARMER NEAR THE COAST.
PATCHY FROST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NATURE COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND MAY EXTEND FURTHER
SOUTH OVER THE INTERIOR.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH THE AIRMASS GRADUALLY MODIFYING A
BIT EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S NORTH
TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH ON THURSDAY...AND AROUND 70 NORTH TO THE
MID 70S SOUTH ON FRIDAY. STILL A COOL NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE
RISK FOR LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO INCREASE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TODAY
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS UNTIL AROUND
SUNSET TODAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
MUCH DRIER COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY AWAY FROM
THE COAST WITH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE
SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL INDEX TODAY IS LOW...SO A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL NOT BE REQUIRED. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL AGAIN DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15
MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 60 40 61 47 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 66 39 65 44 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 62 35 61 40 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 62 41 62 48 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 60 29 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 60 45 61 53 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL
HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND
HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND
MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND LEVY-SUMTER.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE
HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA
BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
UPDATE/AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES...FLANNERY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OGLESBY
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