057
FXUS62 KTBW 221251
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
751 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SOME EARLY PATCHY FOG.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 750 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
DESPITE RADAR SUGGESTING THAT THERE IS SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST, PRELIMINARY 12Z SOUNDING DATA SHOWS A VERY PRONOUNCED
DRY LAYER, ESPECIALLY IN THE 800MB TO 600MB LAYER. IN ACTUALITY,
THIS "RAIN" IS JUST VIRGA. THE PRECIP IS FALLING OUT OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS AT AROUND 12KFT AND EVAPORATING ON THE WAY DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. AS THE DAY GOES, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ALOFT WITH TROUGHING JUST OFF
THE FL EAST COAST TO GET A SPRINKLE TO DEVELOP. THUS THE FORECAST
HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRINKLES.
IN ADDITION TO THIS, SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE MOVED IN ACROSS
SWFL. THIS HAS BEEN ADVECTING WESTWARD AS CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE
SE COAST WERE CONDUCIVE OVERNIGHT FOR CONVECTION. THE HIGHER
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS THUS CREATED A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
THIS TO TAKE PLACE. THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED, BUT IT IS
PRETTY THICK IN SOME SPOTS. FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST AS
WELL TO CAPTURE THIS.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
SOME LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITY ARE IMPACTING SWFL TERMINALS, BUT THIS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED AS THE SUN RISES. THE ONLY NOTABLE
IMPACT THEREAFTER WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ADDITIONAL EARLY
MORNING GROUND FOG AT INTERIOR AND SWFL TERMINALS TOMORROW. SOME
ADDITIONAL FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY, BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER
PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUING. HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION TODAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTH FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS LIKELY NORTH WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION,
THE U/L SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL
CAUSE THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS TO DECREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST
THEN DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH COLDER
DRIER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION. FREEZING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NATURE COAST. GRADUAL WARMING TREND THEREAFTER ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND OVER MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH
ADVISORY LEVELS WINDS POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 60 80 62 / 10 0 0 0
FMY 81 63 83 63 / 10 0 10 10
GIF 79 59 83 61 / 10 0 10 0
SRQ 78 58 80 61 / 10 0 0 0
BKV 80 49 82 52 / 10 0 0 0
SPG 77 61 79 64 / 10 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...FLANNERY
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