445
FXUS62 KTBW 221930
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
230 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE INTERIOR AREAS EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES AND ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEHIND PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
- SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH END
OF THIS WEEK ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE WEST COASTAL AREAS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE.
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER WESTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST AREAS OF WESTERN FLORIDA.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL AROUND 50 OVER THE BIG BEND AREA INCREASING TO
MID TO UPPER 50S OVER WESTERN CENTRAL FLORIDA TO AROUND 60 OVER
SOUTHWEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S OVER THE NATURE COAST AREA TO LOWER 80S OVER CENTRAL WEST
FLORIDA TO MID 80S OVER SOUTHWEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN
THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A STALL FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE UNITED STATES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH WESTERN CENTRAL
FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO SWING FROM A
NORTHEAST DIRECTION EARLY THIS WEEKEND TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION LATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE GOING NORTHERLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THEREFORE, THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MOST OF THIS WEEKEND OVER WESTERN CENTRAL FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NATURE COAST AREA.
HIGHS WILL BE WARMER WITH 80S OVER MOST AREAS EACH DAY. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 60S EACH NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR THE NATURE COAST AREA
WHERE IT WILL BE CLOSER TO AROUND 60.
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL WORK INTO THE WESTERN CENTRAL
FLORIDA EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURE WITH DRY WEATHER.
HIGHS WILL BE 50S OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 60S OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS COULD GET TO FREEZING CONDITIONS OVER
THE NATURE COAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. REST OF THE REGION WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR
THE WINDS OVER KPBI, KTPA, AND KSRQ TO GO MORE NORTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS. REST OF THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN NE AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
MAINLY FROM THE NE TONIGHT OVER THE TAF SITES. FOG FORMATION IS
AGAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z ON FRIDAY AT KPGD, KFMY, KLAL &
KRSW LEADING TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS. REST OF THE TAF SITES
WILL REMAIN VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 102 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE SWINGING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE THIS WEEKEND. THE WINDS WILL
THEN SWING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR GALE FORCE CONDITIONS EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING
RAPIDLY ON MONDAY AND BY MONDAY EVENING BE AT 5 TO 7 FEET NEAR-
SHORE TO 8 TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE. THE HIGH SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DECREASING ON TUESDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY BE AT 1
TO 3 FEET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 60 80 61 81 / 0 0 0 10
FMY 62 84 62 84 / 0 0 0 10
GIF 58 82 60 82 / 0 10 0 10
SRQ 59 80 59 81 / 0 0 0 10
BKV 52 82 53 83 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 62 79 63 79 / 0 0 0 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE...BAXTER
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