803
FXUS62 KTBW 231305
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
805 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE INTERIOR AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
- INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 805 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
ANOTHER MORNING WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING AND SPREADING INTO
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG ELSEWHERE UNDER FAIR
SKIES. THE FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 80S INLAND, BUT THE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP KEEPING
COASTAL AREAS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
AREAS OF LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WILL LIFT
AND DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AT THE TAF SITES INTO EARLY TONIGHT. SOME MORE LATE
NIGHT IFR/LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT INLAND TAF
SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFT BACK TO LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST DURING THIS
EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH LIGHT EAST
NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR LATE NIGHT
EARLY MORNING FOG WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE BOTH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE 50S WITH LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FOG WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE CLIMATIC
NORMALS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE UPPER
70S TO THE MID 80S. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER ON
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN AREA OF SEA FOG
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTH FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SEA FOG WILL
MIX OUT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS.
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST LATE SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
U/L SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT,
AND THE BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH THE AREAL
COVERAGE DECREASING AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS INDICATED BY POPS DECREASING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH MUCH COLDER DRIER AIR ADVECTING BACK ACROSS THE REGION ON
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. MODELS HAVE BEEN MORE BULLISH WITH
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST, WITH BORDERLINE HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS. CURRENTLY
INDICATING FREEZING TEMPERATURES INTO SOME INLAND PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION
OF THIS COLD WEATHER OUTBREAK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE
MID 60S SOUTH ON TUESDAY, WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER A BIT ON WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL
STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATIC NORMALS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST ARE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
CANADIAN AIR ADVECTING OVER THE REGION...WITH SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
RELATIVELY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE WARM MOIST AIR RIDING OVER
THE RELATIVELY COOL GULF WATERS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA
FOG TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MIX OUT THE FOG,
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS, WHICH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS OVERNIGHT.
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY, AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 80 61 81 65 / 0 0 10 0
FMY 84 63 84 65 / 10 0 20 0
GIF 82 60 82 64 / 0 0 10 0
SRQ 80 60 82 64 / 0 0 10 0
BKV 82 53 83 58 / 0 0 10 0
SPG 79 63 80 66 / 0 0 10 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...CLOSE
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...CARLISLE
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