880
FXUS62 KTBW 240001
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
701 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
A QUIET EVENING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA - AND THERE IS
NO REAL APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.
THE ONLY CONCERN OF NOTE OVERNIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. FOG IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SWFL.
MEANWHILE THE BAY AREA AND NATURE COAST ARE MORE LIKELY TO JUST SEE
LOW CLOUDS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW MORNING BETWEEN
10Z AND 15Z AS A MIX OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
INTERIOR AND SWFL TERMINALS ARE FAVORED TO SEE A PERIOD OF FOG.
COASTAL TERMINALS AROUND TAMPA BAY ARE MORE LIKELY TO JUST SEE LOW
CLOUDS. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS FOR
SUBSEQUENT EVENINGS UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
CONTINUING THE RATHER WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID WEATHER.
THANKS TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE WE'LL SEE MORE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING FOG OVER THE WEEKEND, AND AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY SUNDAY THE THREAT FOR SEA FOG WILL RETURN TO AREAS OFF
THE NATURE COAST. COULD SEE SOME OF THIS SEA FOG DEVELOP SOUTH
INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL APPROACH
THE RECORD HIGHS OVER INLAND AREAS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OFF THE NATURE COAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT USHERING IN MUCH COLDER DRIER AIR ONCE
AGAIN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY LIKELY OCCURRING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.
THE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST, WITH WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE 20S AND 30S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AND COOL WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING SOME SETTING US UP FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON LATEST INDICATIONS, FREEZING TEMPERATURES
LOOK LIKELY ONCE AGAIN NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WHILE SOME INLAND AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA COULD DIP TO
AROUND FREEZING.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION REINFORCING THE COOL DRY AIR WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, AND SOME SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN NEARSHORE WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY, WITH ROBUST
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT LEADING TO HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVEL MONDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH DAY WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 61 81 64 80 / 0 10 0 0
FMY 63 84 64 84 / 0 20 0 0
GIF 60 81 63 86 / 0 10 0 0
SRQ 60 81 63 80 / 0 10 0 0
BKV 53 81 58 84 / 0 10 0 10
SPG 63 79 66 78 / 0 10 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...FLANNERY
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