821
FXUS62 KTBW 241823
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
123 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S (NEAR RECORDS) FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS
WHILE COASTAL AREAS STAY IN THE UPPER 70S. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE OF STORMS (MAINLY FOR THE NATURE COAST) ACROSS THE STATE.
RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS
THEN BRINGING IN A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS FOR THE WEEK.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER,
THEN MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S FOR THE NATURE
COAST, WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL STILL BE A
LITTLE BREEZY, SO WIND CHILLS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S/LOWER 30S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA AS WELL. TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL THEN BE SUNNY AND
COOLER FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER NIGHT OF COLD TEMPERATURES, BUT WITH
CALMER WIND. THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK REALLY FEATURES MUCH OF THE
SAME AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, REINFORCING THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. FOR
TONIGHT, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGHER IN LOW CLOUDS AND, TO A LESSER
EXTENT, FOG AFFECTING ALL SITES TOWARD MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY MID MORNING, WITH VFR THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
EAST WINDS TODAY BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR MID-
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THEN COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR NEXT WEEK. NO
RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WE WILL SEE MUCH
DRIER AIR STARTING TUESDAY. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE
OF NIGHTS UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 66 81 61 68 / 0 0 70 30
FMY 65 84 67 76 / 10 0 20 40
GIF 64 86 65 73 / 0 0 40 40
SRQ 64 81 61 71 / 0 0 60 40
BKV 59 85 55 68 / 0 0 70 20
SPG 67 79 63 69 / 0 0 70 40
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
CARLISLE
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