559
FXUS62 KTBW 250046
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
746 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 742 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS SWFL THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME
HEATING, INSTABILITY, AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS TO CREATE SOME SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON,
ORIGINALLY AROUND NAPLES. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SLOWLY MIGRATED
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH A LIGHT
ESE FLOW DOMINATING IN THE BACKGROUND. NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET,
MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE, WITH THE CONVECTION WINDING
DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WHILE THE SHOWERS DO REMAIN, THEY
SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF I-75.
THE ADDED SURFACE MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY NEAR THE SURFACE DOES MEAN
THAT FOG WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS SWFL ONCE THE ACTIVITY WINDS
DOWN. IT IS ALSO LIKELY TO BEGIN EARLIER THAN IT WOULD OTHERWISE.
THUS, HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO SHOW FOG BEGINNING AS THE PRECIP
WINDS DOWN, GRADUALLY SPREADING AND INCREASING IN OVERALL COVERAGE
TOWARDS MORNING. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO ALSO ADJUSTING THE FORECAST
TO SHOW HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING IN THE SAME AREA.
THE OTHER FORECAST ELEMENT BEING MONITORED IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER WINDS TOMORROW THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. SOME GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING IT COULD BE A PRETTY BREEZY DAY. THIS COULD HAVE SOME
IMPLICATIONS ESPECIALLY FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY IF REALIZED. THIS
LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO MATERIALIZE AS GUSTS, SO HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE
THE WIND GUSTS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS TO CAPTURE THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. FOG WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD TOMORROW MORNING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
SOME SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF RSW, BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY
WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ONCE THESE SHOWERS DISSIPATE,
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT,
WITH SWFL TERMINALS LIKELY SEEING FOG EARLIER THAN CENTRAL FL
TERMINALS. THIS COULD HAPPEN IN AS SOON AS A COUPLE HOURS WHEN RAIN
DISSIPATES. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO SHOW THAT IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AS THE RAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND THUS
FOG WOULD LIKELY NEED TO ADVECT WESTWARD. A LIGHT WIND FLOW COULD
ALSO PLAY A FACTOR IN KEEPING FOG AWAY. LOW CLOUDS ARE MORE
LIKELY THAN FOG FOR COASTAL TERMINALS AROUND TAMPA BAY DUE TO
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. WINDS PICK UP AREAWIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
TOMORROW, WITH A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON.
THIS IS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY
ON MONDAY, BRINGING A BRIEF WINDOW FOR STORMS MONDAY MORNING
AROUND TAMPA BAY AND EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SWFL. WINDS
THEN SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION, BUT STAY GUSTY THROUGH THE
DAY AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR MONDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S (NEAR RECORDS) FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS
WHILE COASTAL AREAS STAY IN THE UPPER 70S. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE OF STORMS (MAINLY FOR THE NATURE COAST) ACROSS THE STATE.
RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS
THEN BRINGING IN A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS FOR THE WEEK.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER,
THEN MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S FOR THE NATURE
COAST, WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL STILL BE A
LITTLE BREEZY, SO WIND CHILLS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S/LOWER 30S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA AS WELL. TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL THEN BE SUNNY AND
COOLER FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER NIGHT OF COLD TEMPERATURES, BUT WITH
CALMER WIND. THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK REALLY FEATURES MUCH OF THE
SAME AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, REINFORCING THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
EAST WINDS TODAY BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR MID-
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THEN COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR NEXT WEEK. NO
RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WE WILL SEE MUCH
DRIER AIR STARTING TUESDAY. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE
OF NIGHTS UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 66 81 61 68 / 0 0 70 30
FMY 65 84 67 76 / 10 0 20 40
GIF 64 86 65 73 / 20 0 40 40
SRQ 64 81 61 71 / 10 0 60 40
BKV 59 85 55 68 / 0 0 70 20
SPG 67 79 63 69 / 0 0 70 40
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...FLANNERY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CARLISLE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page