672
FXUS62 KTBW 251144
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
644 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE LOW CEILINGS AND SOME
AREAS OF FOG. FOG AND LOW CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING
WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL
ALSO MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING PRODUCING SOME MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO KEEP CONDITIONS WARM AND
HUMID TODAY. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES, ONCE AGAIN REACHING NEAR
RECORD HIGHS. HOWEVER, A DRASTIC CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS ON ITS
WAY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BRINGING A
FEW SHOWERS, WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT/ EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AND THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
HELP USHER IN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AND DRIER AIR BY MONDAY NIGHT.
MANY AREAS WILL BE WAKING TUESDAY MORNING WITH BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. A FREEZE WATCH IS ALREADY IN AFFECT FOR LEVY,
SUMTER, CITRUS AND PASCO COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY ELSEWHERE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY AS THE TIMING GETS
CLOSER. WIND CHILL TUESDAY MORNING WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR AS THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STILL BE BLOWING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S (NORTH) TO THE LOW 60S
(SOUTH). WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE COLD
AND DRY CONDITIONS STICK AROUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE COLD PATTERN. SOME
PATCHY, DENSE FOG COULD BE LINGERING AROUND THIS MORNING SO BE
CAREFUL IF YOU PLAN ON BEING ON THE ROADS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 144 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
UNFORTUNATELY, THE QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE TODAY AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW INTO TUESDAY. CURRENTLY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION
AND THE NEED FOR ANY UPGRADES TO CURRENT PRODUCTS. WINDS WILL DROP
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THERE'S ALSO
A POSSIBILITY OF SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 80 63 68 38 / 0 50 30 0
FMY 84 67 76 42 / 0 20 40 0
GIF 86 66 73 36 / 0 40 40 0
SRQ 80 61 71 38 / 0 50 40 0
BKV 85 56 68 28 / 0 50 30 0
SPG 79 64 69 42 / 0 50 40 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL PASCO-
INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-
SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA
BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
AVIATION...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...CLOSE
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