614
FXUS62 KTBW 251434
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
934 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
THE ONLY WEATHER CONCERN WE'VE HAD THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS, THEN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S, WITH SOME AREAS HITTING THE UPPER 80S WITH SOME POSSIBLE
RECORD HIGHS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD TONIGHT ONLY DIPPING INTO
THE 50S AND 60S. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 930 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE LOW CEILINGS, BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH VFR THEN
PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING PRODUCING SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 930 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
THE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE TODAY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WINDS FURTHER INCREASE AND WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL TOMORROW INTO TUESDAY, WHICH HAS WARRANTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS
OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY, SO WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR THE NEED OF ANY UPGRADES TO CURRENT
PRODUCTS. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
THOUGH WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4
FEET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 80 63 68 38 / 0 50 30 0
FMY 84 67 76 42 / 0 20 40 0
GIF 86 66 73 36 / 0 40 40 0
SRQ 80 61 71 38 / 0 50 40 0
BKV 85 56 68 28 / 0 50 30 0
SPG 79 64 69 42 / 0 50 40 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL PASCO-
INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-
SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA
BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...CLOSE
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