680
FXUS62 KTBW 251839
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
139 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES LIKELY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION FOR ONE MORE DAY. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH SOME AREAS
HITTING THE UPPER 80S WITH SOME POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT.
THE BIG WEATHER STORY IS STILL A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH OF WEST
OF FLORIDA. AN EXTENSIVE WEATHER SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES, WESTWARD TO WEST TENNESSEE AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD
TO LOUISIANA. THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY BRINGING BIG WINTERTIME
PROBLEMS WITH SNOW AND ICE OVER THOSE REGIONS AND WILL BRING A BIG
COOL DOWN TO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NATURE
COAST LATE THIS EVENING BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS ON MONDAY BRINGING SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF FLORIDA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE BIG PUSH OF FRIGID POLAR AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AROUND 1038 MB LOCATED OVER THE
DAKOTAS MOVES SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS ADVECTING FREEZING TEMPERATURES DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEAST
INCLUDING MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FREEZE
WATCH FOR PASCO COUNTY NORTHWARD ALONG THE NATURE COAST FOR TUESDAY
MORNING, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING BY
MONDAY. A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEK, REINFORCING THE COLD AIR PUSH WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
MORNING LOWS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNINGS WILL DIP INTO THE
20S AND 30S FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, THEN INTO
THE 30S AND 40S FOR THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, BUT THEN
SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA PRODUCING SOME IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO LOW CLOUDS, RAIN WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA AFTER 09Z FOR THE NORTHERN SITES AND AFTER 13Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
SITES. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT
LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 136 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
THE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE TODAY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WINDS FURTHER INCREASE AND WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL TOMORROW INTO TUESDAY, WHICH HAS WARRANTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS
OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY, SO WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR THE NEED OF ANY UPGRADES TO CURRENT
PRODUCTS. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
THOUGH WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4
FEET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 136 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THEN COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR NEXT WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS TODAY AND MONDAY, THEN THE DRY AIR
WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY WITH CRITICAL HUMIDITY VALUES STICKING
AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, THE SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL STAY BELOW 15 MPH DURING THAT TIME, SO NO RED FLAG WARNING
SHOULD BE NEEDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 62 68 37 56 / 60 30 0 0
FMY 68 77 43 64 / 10 40 0 0
GIF 66 73 36 58 / 40 40 0 0
SRQ 62 71 39 58 / 50 40 0 0
BKV 55 68 28 56 / 50 20 0 0
SPG 64 70 43 57 / 60 30 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL PASCO-
INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-
SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA
BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...CLOSE
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