824
FXUS62 KTBW 261349
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
849 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES LIKELY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY IS MOVING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING PRODUCING
A MIX OF SHRA, LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS INTO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE
THIS MORNING THROUGH 15-18Z WITH NW WIND GUSTS OVER 25KTS LIKELY.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY N WINDS INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
IF YOU'VE BEEN ENJOYING THE ABOVE AVERAGE, RECORD BREAKING HIGH
TEMPERATURES THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THEN YOU'LL BE DISAPPOINTED IN
THIS WEEK'S FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. LUCKILY, OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE
SPARED FROM THE MAJOR ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT OTHER SOUTHERN
STATES ARE DEALING WITH. HOWEVER, WE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
TEMPERATURE DROP AS ARCTIC AIR PUSHES INTO OUR AREA. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN TO THE NORTH, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS, THE STRONG, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO MOST OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THE FREEZE WATCH FOR MANY NORTHERN COUNTIES HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREAS
HAS BEEN PLACED IN A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL STAY IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS COLD
PATTERN LINGERS ALL WEEK, THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND EVEN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE WARMTH OF THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL BE A DISTANT MEMORY AS WE ENTER THIS LONG STRETCH OF VERY
WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 158 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS MOVE OVER THE WATERS ALONG A COLD FRONT. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WINDS COULD OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT WILL STAY AROUND 15KTS THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE INCREASING TO
ADVISORY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 158 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
COLD, DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS TOMORROW AND STAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
LUCKILY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH DURING THIS
TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 69 36 56 36 / 40 0 0 0
FMY 76 41 63 38 / 40 0 0 0
GIF 72 35 57 33 / 40 0 0 0
SRQ 71 38 57 36 / 40 0 0 0
BKV 68 27 56 25 / 30 0 0 0
SPG 69 41 57 42 / 40 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL PASCO-
INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-
SUMTER.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL
PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-
INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND
MANATEE-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR
AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CLOSE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page