866
FXUS62 KTBW 261913
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
213 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO MID WEEK THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US TO KEEP THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN THE DEEP SOUTH WITH GUSTY WINDS ADVECTING VERY
LOW TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS OVER THE FL PENINSULA. THE SIGNIFICANT
TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE A COMBINATION OF SUB
FREEZING TEMPS N OF TAMPA BAY AND LOW WIND CHILL VALUES AREAWIDE
TO KEEP THE HAZARDOUS COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS ONGOING.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OVER THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE LATE THEN
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER MIDNIGHT TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUB FREEZING TEMPS THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY REGION
SOUTHWARD WHERE A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AND MAY NEED TO
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH IF GUIDANCE TRENDS ANY COLDER.
ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WORK WEEK AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE W GULF AND MOVES ENEWARD BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT ARCTIC
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND FOR MORE FRIGID AND DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS
WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
THE POST FRONTAL DECK OF BKN MVFR LOW CIGS HAS BEEN SLOW TO MIX
OUT BUT EXPECT MOST TERMINALS TO BE MAINLY SCT BY AROUND 21Z WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS TO AROUND 25KTS. WINDS VEER N-NNE TONIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE INTO TUESDAY.
MARINE
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS IN THE E
GULF WILL LARGE AND CHOPPY SEAS TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
AS A FEW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE A BIT TUESDAY WITH SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDING. MODERATE WINDS WILL STAY AROUND 15KTS WITH 2-4
FT SEAS THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS RETURNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP THE COLD
AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS TUESDAY AND STAY LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WINDS DECREASE AND REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH PREVENTING RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 37 57 37 59 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 41 64 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 35 57 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 38 58 37 60 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 27 56 26 59 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 42 57 43 60 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL PASCO-
INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-
SUMTER.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL
PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-
INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND
MANATEE-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR
AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CLOSE
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