241
FXUS62 KTBW 270009
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
709 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY
TONIGHT INTO MID WEEK THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IS USHERING IN AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH COLDER DRIER AIR
ADVECTING OVER THE AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARM WATERS OF THE EASTERN GULF HAS CREATED A LARGE AREA OF COLD
AIR STRATO-CU. TRAJECTORIES ARE PUSHING THE CLOUDS LOCALLY ONSHORE
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM ABOUT PINELLAS COUNTY SOUTH TO LEE
COUNTY. THE BACKSIDE OF THE CLOUD FIELD IS APPROACHING TPA/PIE
ATTM AND IS PUSHING RAPIDLY SOUTH AS THE MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS
OVER THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SKIES ACROSS ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SHOULD BE CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT.
THE COLD AIR COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE CRITICAL WIND
CHILLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NATURE COAST FROM PASCO COUNTY NORTH...WITH A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. COLD DAY
ON TAP FOR TUESDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S NORTH AND CENTRAL...AND AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH. THE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL ALSO CREATE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW
DOWN THE PENINSULA AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL CAUSE
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST...LOWER 30S CENTRAL...AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER NEAR THE COAST. A
FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM POLK AND INTERIOR HILLSBOROUGH
COUNTY NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
MVFR CIGS AROUND 020 FROM TPA/PIE AND SOUTH ALONG THE COASTAL
COUNTIES WILL MOVE AWAY FROM ALL TERMINALS BY MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES
BECOMING SKC. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MAINLY
AT COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY BUT
MAY REMAIN A BIT GUSTY AT SOUTHWEST TERMINALS UNTIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 71 37 57 37 / 40 0 0 0
FMY 77 41 64 39 / 30 0 0 0
GIF 73 35 57 33 / 50 0 0 0
SRQ 73 38 58 37 / 40 0 0 0
BKV 68 27 56 26 / 30 0 0 0
SPG 71 42 57 43 / 30 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL PASCO-
INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-
SUMTER.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL
PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-
INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND
MANATEE-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR
AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...WYNN
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...WYNN
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