231
FXUS62 KTBW 270713
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
213 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY
EACH MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY.
- EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD HARD
FREEZE CONDITIONS AND LOW WIND CHILLS EACH MORNING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING, WHILE THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF A STRONG JET STREAK SITS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. AT THE
SURFACE, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO FLORIDA FROM THE
NORTHWEST, WITH NORTH WINDS PRODUCING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
THIS MORNING. THIS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS
NORTH OF TAMPA BAY AND UNSEASONABLY LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THESE BREEZY WINDS ARE ALSO PRODUCING A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.
AS THE SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES IN, WINDS WILL LARGELY DIMINISH
TODAY AND TONIGHT, SETTING UP A HYBRID RADIATIONAL COOLING/COLD
AIR ADVECTION SETUP FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, WHERE THE FREEZE
WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING FROM POLK AND
INTERIOR HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES NORTH. SOUTH OF THAT AREA,
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO
THE 20S AND LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA. AS SUCH, A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL LAND ZONES NOT IN THE FREEZE
WARNING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EVEN FURTHER ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN
A MORE TRADITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. A FREEZE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHLANDS AND DESOTO COUNTIES, BUT
AREAS OUTSIDE THE WATCH COULD STILL SEE ISOLATED SPOTS BRIEFLY
TOUCHING FREEZING. AREAS OF FROST ARE ALSO EXPECTED THURSDAY
MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND BY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS
STILL APPROACHING FREEZING OVER THE NATURE COAST, BUT THEY ARE
NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PRODUCE ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT.
AFTER A FAIRLY MILD AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY, THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR
A LITTLE RAIN AND INCREASING WINDS. WITH SO LITTLE TIME TO
RECOVER IN BETWEEN FRONTS, THIS COLD PLUNGE WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES TO EVEN LOWER EXTREMES BY SUNDAY MORNING THAT WHAT IS
BEING FELT THIS MORNING, WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 20S NORTH
AND HARD FREEZES AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHLANDS COUNTY. THE UNUSUALLY
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 213 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BREEZY NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 213 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR GALE FORCE AT TIMES EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, WITH
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO END LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE HOLD NORTH OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH WINDS OCCASIONALLY APPROACHING
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THRESHOLDS AT TIMES. THE NEXT FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY,
BRINGING WINDS BACK UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR POTENTIALLY GALE
FORCE LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 213 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS HAS FILLED INTO THE AREA, WITH
CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EACH
AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN HUMIDITY GRADUALLY
INCREASES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
MORNING AND WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
PREVENTING RED FLAG WARNINGS FROM BEING ISSUED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 56 36 59 39 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 62 37 65 39 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 57 32 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 57 36 60 38 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 55 25 59 27 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 57 42 59 45 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-SUMTER.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL PASCO-
INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND
LEVY-INLAND PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-DESOTO-
HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-
INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-
HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHARLOTTE
HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA
BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
FLEMING
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