987
FXUS62 KTBW 280007
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
707 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY
EACH MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY.
- EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD HARD
FREEZE CONDITIONS AND LOW WIND CHILLS EACH MORNING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
SKC AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NNE WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING NNW
WED AROUND 18Z.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH COLD DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH
AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
THEREFORE ADDED INLAND MANATEE, INLAND SARASOTA, HARDEE, AND
DESOTO COUNTIES TO THE FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT. COULD SEE LOWS
DIP TO FREEZING IN PARTS OF INLAND CHARLOTTE AND HIGHLANDS
COUNTIES, BUT NOT EXPECTING TO SEE WIDESPREAD DURATIONS OF 2 HOURS
OR MORE.
AFTER A COLD START WE'LL ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, BUT STILL ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER SIMILAR AREAS TO TONIGHT,
BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE FREEZE WATCH AS IS.
THE MODERATING TREND CONTINUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DURING
THIS TIME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA, FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS USHERING IN OUR NEXT ROUND OF COLD WEATHER FOR THE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS ROUND OF COLD
WEATHER COULD BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING NOW WITH LOWS
SUNDAY MORNING DIPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST SOUTH
INTO INLAND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHILE THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW
KEEPS AREAS NEAR THE COAST FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY SOUTH IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. EITHER WAY WE ARE EXPECTING RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK, ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WATERS ADJACENT TO SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY,
BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN AND INCREASING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE
LOW HUMIDITY, WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THE WEEK,
PREVENTING RED FLAG CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 35 60 40 64 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 36 65 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 32 63 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 34 60 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 24 60 26 65 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 42 60 46 65 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL PASCO-
DESOTO-HARDEE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND
SARASOTA-POLK-SUMTER.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-DESOTO-
HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH- COASTAL
LEE- COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-HIGHLANDS- INLAND
CHARLOTTE- INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...WYNN
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