060
FXUS62 KTBW 281231
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
731 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY
THIS MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING.
- EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD HARD
FREEZE CONDITIONS AND LOW WIND CHILLS EACH MORNING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SPRAWLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AS THE CANADIAN AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER OVER
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THAN IT IS OVER THE NATURE COAST, CREATING AN
INTERESTING HYBRID COLD NIGHT SETUP. LIGHT WINDS OVER THE NATURE
COAST ARE SETTING UP STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COLD AIR
DRAINAGE, ALLOWING FOR A HARD FREEZE THERE. OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA, WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER, SO WHILE THE
TEMPERATURES WON'T GET QUITE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING AND WILL ONLY
FLIRT WITH FREEZING, THE WIND CHILL EFFECT WILL BE STRONGER THERE
THAN IT IS TO THE NORTH. AFTER SUNRISE, CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE QUITE A BIT, WARMING UP INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. HOWEVER, THOSE CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NATURE COAST, AND LOW 30S OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR
THURSDAY MORNING. FOR SOUTHERN AND COASTAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THAT MIGHT NOT REACH FREEZING, WIND SPEEDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. AS
SUCH, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS NOT IN
THE FREEZE WARNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
LOWS APPROACHING FREEZING OVER THE NATURE COAST FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF FROST, BUT WIDESPREAD FREEZING
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT,
WINDS WILL TURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO MODERATE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THIS
FAIR WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED, HOWEVER, AS THE STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE HIGH TEENS AND LOW 20S OVER THE NATURE COAST, WITH HARD
FREEZES POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHLANDS
COUNTY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL FAIL TO BREAK OUT OF THE 40S, LEADING
TO TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING BEING NEAR OR ONLY A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE ON
TUESDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 209 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GULF WILL HOLD IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUING. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALY INCREASE TO AROUND EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS, MAINLY OVER THE GULF WATERS SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD,
BUT WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE WATERS,
BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR STORMS. A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY OR PERHAPS GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH MARINE CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 209 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
A VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY, WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PERCENTAGES DROPPING INTO THE 20S AND LOW 30S FOR
SEVERAL HOURS EACH AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITY, WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO REQUIRE RED FLAG
WARNINGS. HUMIDITY INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 59 39 64 45 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 64 37 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 61 35 65 42 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 60 39 66 44 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 59 28 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 59 44 64 50 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL PASCO-DESOTO-HARDEE-
INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND
LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-POLK-
SUMTER.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-DESOTO-HARDEE-
HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-
INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-
INLAND MANATEE-PINELLAS.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-INLAND LEE-
INLAND MANATEE-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CARLISLE
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