815
FXUS62 KTBW 290035
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
735 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY
THURSDAY MORNING.
- EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD HARD
FREEZE CONDITIONS AND LOW WIND CHILLS EACH MORNING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 735 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE ARKLATEX RIDGES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SE U.S. AND FL INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH LIGHT NW FLOW
ACROSS WC/SWFL UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING, WHILE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SWINGS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE E GULF AND PENINSULA. CLEAR
SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE RIDGE
PASSES OVER THE AREA, AND COUPLED WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS,
PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-4 BUT ALSO EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS, WILL PRESENT A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP TO/BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THOSE AREAS, WHERE A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT, ALSO FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM, WHERE FEELS LIKE TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 35 DEGREES OR COLDER. PATCHY FROST WITH
SOME AREAS OF FROST SOUTH OF I-4 ARE LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD FROST NORTHWARD. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK THIS EVENING WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STILL KEEPING COLD AND DRY AIR OVER THE STATE
WITH MOST OF US STILL SITTING IN THE 50'S THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW MORNING WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BUT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
BACK IN THE 60'S. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL START TO FORM IN
THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY RAISE TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE FRONT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY IT WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT PULLS COLD AIR SOUTH. THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH. THIS
WILL ALSO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP DURING THE DAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WE COULD STILL SEE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ALONG WITH DROPPING TEMPERATURES. MODELS
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF CYCLE HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED THE PROBABILITY
OF SEEING SOME GULF EFFECT FLURRIES OR EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER OUR
COASTAL AREAS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND AND
A BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WATER TEMPERATURES AND AIR TEMPERATURE.
EVEN THOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS THE TIME WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING THE WET BULB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING
WHICH WOULD ALSO SUPPORT FLURRIES. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE IF
WE STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO PRODUCE ANY FLURRIES. RIGHT
NOW WE HAVE DECIDED TO ADD A 20 PERCENT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN PINELLAS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A MENTION OF FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE COAST
AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW FOR RIGHT NOW. WE WANT TO
EMPHASIZE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AS ANY SNOW THAT
DOES FALL WILL MELT AS SOON AS IT TOUCHES THE GROUND.
THE THING WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT IS SEEING SOME OF THE COLDEST
AIR ACROSS THE CWA IN ABOUT 15 YEARS. WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE 20'S IN INLAND LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS KEEPING COASTAL AREAS A LITTLE WARMER. HIGHS FOR EVERYONE WILL
BE STUCK IN THE 40'S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL CALM DOWN ALLOW FOR
MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE WIDESPREAD 20'S IN
THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY MORNING BEFORE WARMING UP TO THE 50'S BY THE
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TRY TO WARM UP BY NEXT TUESDAY BUT WE CAN
EXPECT AT LEAST ONE MORE MORNING ON WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES
BEFORE GETTING INTO THE 60'S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
DRY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND
10 KNOTS OR LESS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 152 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 15 TO 20
KNOTS FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF ON FRIDAY WILL
SWITCH WINDS TO THE THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
DEEPENING IN THE ATLANTIC WHICH WILL RESULT IN WINDS QUICKLY
INCREASING ON SATURDAY. WE ARE EXPECTING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SLOWLY BE COMING DOWN BUT WILL STILL
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 152 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
CRITICAL RHS WILL STILL BE AROUND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS STILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. MOISTURE
WILL START TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE GULF. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE
AREA. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN MAINLY ON SUNDAY WITH
RHS NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 38 65 46 70 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 38 70 48 71 / 0 0 0 10
GIF 35 66 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 39 67 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 27 65 35 71 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 46 66 51 69 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-DESOTO-HARDEE-
HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-
INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-INLAND LEE-
INLAND MANATEE-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...HURT
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...FLANNERY
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