938
FXUS62 KTBW 180100
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
800 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.
- SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
INTO THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH SOME SEA FOG OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 800 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG THE WEST COAST COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE HAS PUSHED INLAND, ALONG WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT EXPECT TO SEE SOME MORE CLOUDS HERE AND
THERE, AND PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER INLAND AREAS.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING WARM AND MOIST AIR NORTHWARD. POTENTIAL
FOR SEA FOG RETURNS DURING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DEW
POINTS CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S, BUT WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
SOME AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING TO SOUTH AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND THEN SOUTHWEST AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
AFTER A SLIGHTLY COOLER MORNING, TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP INTO
THE UPPER 70S LOW 80S. AS THE WEEK CONTINUES, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS.
THERE'S A CHANCE SOME INLAND AREAS COULD EVEN SEE 90 LATER IN THE
WEEK WHEN THE WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY DRAGGING MORE MOIST,
TROPICAL AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE AREA, KEEPING WARM, MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY BRINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OR SHOWERS. THE BIG CHANGE
WILL COME BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS PUSHES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
30S AND 40S THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
60S AND 70S. IN OTHER WORDS, WILL GO FROM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, TO BELOW AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 140 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP QUITE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LEADING TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TO START
THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 140 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE WEEK. RH VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH. A COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT ONCE MORE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 62 79 63 79 / 0 0 0 10
FMY 61 82 62 82 / 10 0 0 0
GIF 60 84 60 84 / 0 0 0 10
SRQ 60 78 61 78 / 0 0 0 10
BKV 54 82 55 82 / 0 0 0 20
SPG 65 77 66 77 / 0 0 0 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...CLOSE
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...HURT
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