323
FXUS62 KTBW 181735
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1235 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
FRIDAY.
- SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
INTO THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH SOME SEA FOG OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, DOMINATE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, KEEPING
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO INCREASE EACH OF
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BRINGING UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID
TEMPERATURES FOR MID TO LATE FEBRUARY. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR WILL APPROACH 90, WITH
LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. APART FROM THE UNUSUALLY WARM
CONDITIONS, THE OTHER WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE FROM LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPING EACH DAY BEGINNING TONIGHT, WITH BOTH
SEA FOG AND INLAND BASED RADIATIONAL FOG POSSIBLE.
DURING THE WEEKEND, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS, PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THEN BREEZY NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOWS MONDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S OVER THE NATURE COAST AND 40S TO LOW 50S
ELSEWHERE, THEN LOWS WILL APPROACH FREEZING IN PARTS OF THE NATURE
COAST TUESDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
20S AND LOW 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH WINDS GENERALLY
FROM THE SOUTH. THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE FOG OVERNIGHT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH FLIGHT
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM ROUGHLY 08-15Z. FURTHER TAF
ISSUANCES WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE TIMING OF THE FOG. FOG
SHOULD LIFT IN THE 14-16Z TIMEFRAME GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 222 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE EASTERN GULF WILL HOLD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
REMAINING LESS THAN HEADLINE CRITERIA. UNDER THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW,
SOME AREAS OF SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
WATERS ON SUNDAY, BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AND WINDS INCREASING TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON
SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 222 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PERCENTAGES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR, BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
CRITICALLY LOW THRESHOLDS. HUMIDITY INCREASES THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL MORNINGS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 64 80 64 81 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 62 84 63 85 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 61 84 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 62 79 62 80 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 57 83 57 86 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 66 79 67 80 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...ANDERSON
DECISION SUPPORT...PEARCE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...PEARCE
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