228
FXUS62 KTBW 181813
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
113 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
FRIDAY.
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG
FORMATION EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH SEA FOG OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 112 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
TEMPERATURES AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN THE UPPER LEVELS. BROAD LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING EXISTS ACROSS THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FEATURE, BUT WILL BECOME
MORE CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY. THE PW VALUES FROM THE 12Z
TBW SOUNDING WAS 0.76 INCHES. THIS VALUE IS NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGE FOR MID-FEBRURARY.
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSUE IN PLACE. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. THE
GULF WATERS ARE COOL WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. THE COMBINATION OF WARM/MOIST AIR MOVING OVER COOLER
WATER WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVER THE LAND AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IN FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT IS HIGH. THIS FOG SHOULD LIFT OVERLAND SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING THAT THE FOG OVER THE GULF, MAY
LINGERING INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN
CONSISTENT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB EACH DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF HIGHS REACHING THE 90
DEGREE MARK INLAND ON SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LATE
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE TBW CWA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH
THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT AND THE AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH. OVERALL, THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
NOT DO ANYTHING TO HELP WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.
THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT LIKE
WHAT WE SAW WITH THE LAST SYSTEM IN LATE JANUARY AND EARLY FEBRUARY.
LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST TO UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE COLDEST MORNING WILL BE
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A FREEZE CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ALONG COAST FROM TAMPA BAY
SOUTHWARDS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH WINDS GENERALLY
FROM THE SOUTH. THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE FOG OVERNIGHT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH FLIGHT
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM ROUGHLY 08-15Z. FURTHER TAF
ISSUANCES WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE TIMING OF THE FOG. FOG
SHOULD LIFT IN THE 14-16Z TIMEFRAME GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 112 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE EASTERN GULF WILL HOLD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
REMAINING LESS THAN HEADLINE CRITERIA. UNDER THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW,
SOME AREAS OF SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
WATERS ON SUNDAY, BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AND WINDS INCREASING TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON
SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 212 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
HUMIDITY INCREASES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 79 64 80 64 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 83 62 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 84 61 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 78 62 79 62 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 82 57 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 78 66 79 67 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...ANDERSON
DECISION SUPPORT...PEARCE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...PEARCE
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