710
FXUS62 KTBW 190010
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
710 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG
FORMATION EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH SEA FOG OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG/SEA FOG AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT
AREAS OF LAND FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND SOME OF IT COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. SEA FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OFF THE NATURE COAST SOUTH TO AROUND TAMPA BAY, BUT SO
FAR ONLY SEEING SOME AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS HERE AND THERE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOG TRENDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT, AND FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKING ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT
FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
SOME IFR/LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND THEN SHIFT TO MORE
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 112 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
TEMPERATURES AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN THE UPPER LEVELS. BROAD LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING EXISTS ACROSS THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FEATURE, BUT WILL BECOME
MORE CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY. THE PW VALUES FROM THE 12Z
TBW SOUNDING WAS 0.76 INCHES. THIS VALUE IS NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGE FOR MID-FEBRURARY.
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSUE IN PLACE. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. THE
GULF WATERS ARE COOL WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. THE COMBINATION OF WARM/MOIST AIR MOVING OVER COOLER
WATER WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVER THE LAND AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IN FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT IS HIGH. THIS FOG SHOULD LIFT OVERLAND SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING THAT THE FOG OVER THE GULF, MAY
LINGERING INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN
CONSISTENT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB EACH DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF HIGHS REACHING THE 90
DEGREE MARK INLAND ON SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LATE
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE TBW CWA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH
THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT AND THE AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH. OVERALL, THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
NOT DO ANYTHING TO HELP WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.
THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOT LIKE
WHAT WE SAW WITH THE LAST SYSTEM IN LATE JANUARY AND EARLY FEBRUARY.
LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST TO UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE COLDEST MORNING WILL BE
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A FREEZE CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ALONG COAST FROM TAMPA BAY
SOUTHWARDS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 112 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK, WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY. AREAS OF SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES BEGINNING
TONIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING TO ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 212 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
HUMIDITY INCREASES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AREAS OF FOG ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 64 80 64 81 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 62 84 63 85 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 61 84 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 62 79 62 80 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 57 83 57 86 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 66 79 67 80 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CLOSE
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...ANDERSON
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