589
FXUS62 KTBW 190740
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
240 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG
FORMATION EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH SEA FOG OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF
BERMUDA IS RIDGING WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SETTING UP
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL HOLD THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THIS PATTERN IS BRINGING ABOUT WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RUN 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND APPROACH 90 OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR EACH
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE IS
ALSO FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EACH MORNING, ALTHOUGH A CIRRUS
DECK OVER FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING COULD SUPPRESS RADIATION AND
LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD INLAND FOG CAN BECOME. REGARDLESS OF
RADIATIONAL FOG, THE SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD PRODUCE SEA FOG OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AT ANY TIME THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WHICH MAY
SHIFT ONSHORE AND LIMIT VISIBILITY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN US THIS WEEKEND,
THEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL AMPLIFY THE TROUGH
DEEPER TOWARDS FLORIDA. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AN INITIAL COLD FRONT
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SUNDAY, WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY, THEN A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY FOR AREAS STILL SUFFERING
FROM EXTREME OR SEVERE DROUGHT, QPFS FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE
ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH.
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH LOWS
MONDAY MORNING DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S OVER THE NATURE COAST, AND
UPPER 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS
TO BE THE COLDEST DAY, WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY OVER THE
NATURE COAST, AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S OVER THE REST OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, WHILE WIND CHILLS RUN FROM THE
MID 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES WARMER WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
LIGHTER WINDS ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY MODERATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, CAUSING PERIODS OF MVFR-LIFR CONDITIONS AT AREA
TERMINALS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY AROUND
14Z, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEA FOG DEVELOPING AND PUSHING
INTO TERMINALS NEAR THE COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH SATURDAY, SETTING UP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
AREAS OF SEA FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AT TIMES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS ON
SUNDAY, WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WINDS BUILDING TO ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, BRINGING INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR EACH AFTERNOON, BUT IS NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITICALLY LOW
LEVELS. HIGH DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH OF THE NEXT
COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 80 64 82 64 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 84 63 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 85 62 88 62 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 79 63 80 61 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 84 58 86 56 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 79 66 80 65 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
FLEMING
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