878
FXUS62 KTBW 200028
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
728 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG
FORMATION EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH SEA FOG OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE
ISSUED AT 707 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS FOR LATE FEBRUARY. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING, AND GIVEN THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS, AREAS OF
FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS
SUNRISE. LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER DRIER AIR
WILL ADVECT OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ON REPEAT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH INLAND AREAS GETTING CLOSE IF NOT TO,
90 DEGREES BY SATURDAY. SEA FOG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A WARM SOUTHERLY WIND BLOWS OVER THE COOL GULF
WATERS. ALONG WITH THE SEA FOG, RADIATIONAL FOG WILL ALSO BE LIKELY
INLAND, IMPACTING MORNING COMMUTES. BE SURE TO USE CAUTION WHEN
VISIBILITIES ARE LOW. INLAND FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING, HOWEVER
THE SEA FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER OUT IN THE GULF THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY.
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN
FOR NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
THROUGH THE STATE. BEHIND THE FRONT A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL
FILTER IN DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S/40S TO START THE
WEEK. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST
MORNINGS, AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MANY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S AND 60S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE THIS EVENING. AREAS OF FOG
WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ALL TERMINALS POTENTIALLY
IMPACTED WITH PREDOMINATELY MVFR VSBYS...BUT LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND AROUND SUNRISE. THE FOG
WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SEA FOG LIKELY TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WATERS AND BAYS. SEA FOG WILL
POSSIBLY LINGER IN THE GULF THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT, REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY
NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. RH VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. HOWEVER INCREASED WINDS TODAY AND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL KEEP DISPERSION INDICES ON THE HIGH SIDE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BRINGING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA BEFORE DRYING OUT ONCE AGAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 81 64 82 63 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 84 63 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 86 62 88 62 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 79 62 80 61 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 84 58 85 56 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 79 67 79 67 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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