827
FXUS62 KTBW 201130
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
630 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG
FORMATION EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH SEA FOG OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY AROUND 14Z OR SO AND WILL
THEN CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING A DECK OF CIRRUS SPRAWLED
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS A DOMINANT SURFACE RIDGE HOLDS EAST
OF FLORIDA OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO FOG
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT HOWEVER, THE CIRRUS DECK IS
SUPPRESSING RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH COULD LIMIT OR DELAY THE
ONSET OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE THEN WOULD
OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED. REGARDLESS, THE SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD
PRODUCE SEA FOG OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND REDUCE VISIBILITY NEAR
THE COAST AT TIMES TODAY. PATCHY FOG IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, UNDER THE STRONG
RIDGING, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 OVER PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON SUNDAY WHEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN US AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, BUT RAIN TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH ON AVERAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
KEEPING A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
MID 30S AND 40S MONDAY MORNING, THEN AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY COOL
AFTERNOON, CONTINUE TO DROP EVEN COLDER FOR TUESDAY MORNING WITH
FREEZING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST AND
INTO INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. SINCE NORTH WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10 MPH TUESDAY MORNING, WIND CHILLS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
CONCERN, DROPPING INTO THE 20S AND LOW 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH THE NORTH WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL COME TO
AN END BEFORE SUNSET TUESDAY NIGHT, CLEAR SKIES WILL SETUP
ROBUST RADIATIONAL COOLING, MEANING WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
TUESDAY NIGHT FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD AND SETS UP IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF FLORIDA WILL HOLD TODAY AND SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SEA FOG DEVELOPING AT
ANY TIME THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT, THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, OR PERHAPS NEAR GALE FORCE CRITERIA SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PERCENTAGES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS, BUT WINDS
ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
HIGH DISPERSION INDICES ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 82 64 82 64 / 0 0 0 20
FMY 86 63 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 88 63 88 63 / 0 0 0 10
SRQ 81 62 80 62 / 0 0 0 10
BKV 86 56 86 58 / 0 0 0 30
SPG 81 65 80 67 / 0 0 0 20
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
AVIATION...CARLISLE
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