655
FXUS62 KTBW 201818
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
118 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG
FORMATION EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH SEA FOG OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION,
FOLLOWED BY A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL BE A DIFFERENT
STORY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S., PUSHING A COLD FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS STARTING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVERALL.
WHAT WE WILL GET, HOWEVER, IS ANOTHER COOL-DOWN TO START THE WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S MONDAY MORNING, BUT TEMPERATURES FOR
NOW LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
COLDEST OF THE WEEK, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST, THEN WE WARM UP SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR FREEZING FOR SOME
OF THE SAME LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD FOR THE
MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE
ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC IFR/LIFR
CIGS AND/OR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SIMILAR TO TODAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 14Z OR SO, WITH VFR
THEN FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF FLORIDA WILL HOLD TODAY AND SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SEA FOG DEVELOPING AT
ANY TIME THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT, THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
NEAR GALE FORCE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION, FAVORING WARM AND STABLE
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. NO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, BUT THEN MUCH DRIER AIR
RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 63 82 64 73 / 0 0 10 80
FMY 63 85 62 78 / 0 0 10 50
GIF 62 87 63 77 / 0 0 10 80
SRQ 62 80 62 76 / 0 0 10 80
BKV 56 85 58 73 / 0 0 30 70
SPG 66 79 66 74 / 0 0 10 80
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
CARLISLE
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