246
FXUS62 KTBW 210018
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
718 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG
FORMATION EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH SEA FOG OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE
ISSUED AT 709 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, AND THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE. THE FOG WILL LIFT
BY MID MORNING SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER WARM RATHER HUMID DAY UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION,
FOLLOWED BY A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL BE A DIFFERENT
STORY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S., PUSHING A COLD FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS STARTING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVERALL.
WHAT WE WILL GET, HOWEVER, IS ANOTHER COOL-DOWN TO START THE WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S MONDAY MORNING, BUT TEMPERATURES FOR
NOW LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
COLDEST OF THE WEEK, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST, THEN WE WARM UP SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR FREEZING FOR SOME
OF THE SAME LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD FOR THE
MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE
ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 709 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE WITH GENERAL IFR VSBYS, AND LCL LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TERMINALS OF
PGD/FMY/RSW AND OVER THE INTERIOR VCNTY LAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF FLORIDA WILL HOLD TODAY AND SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SEA FOG DEVELOPING AT
ANY TIME THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT, THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
NEAR GALE FORCE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION, FAVORING WARM AND STABLE
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. NO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, BUT THEN MUCH DRIER AIR
RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 83 63 82 64 / 0 0 0 10
FMY 86 63 85 62 / 0 0 0 10
GIF 88 62 87 63 / 0 0 0 10
SRQ 81 62 80 62 / 0 0 0 10
BKV 86 56 85 58 / 0 0 0 30
SPG 81 66 79 66 / 0 0 0 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...GIARRATANA
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...GIARRATANA
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