743
FXUS62 KTBW 211143
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
643 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG
FORMATION EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH SEA FOG OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
LIMITED FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERIODICALLY LEAD TO RESTRICTIONS
AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 14Z OR SO BEFORE VFR RETURNS FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS RATHER TRICKY AS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SEA FOG FORMING AND AFFECTING COASTAL
LOCATIONS, BUT THIS HAS SO FAR NOT MATERIALIZED. HAVING SAID THAT,
THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE RIPE FOR FOG FORMATION SO WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW, WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG FOR ALL
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
AND THIS WILL START TO MOVE NEAR KTPA AND KPIE BEFORE 12Z.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL START TO PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.
WE WILL BE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WHICH WILL GIVE US ANOTHER WARM
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS APPROACHING RECORD BREAKING CRITERIA IN THE
INTERIOR. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL START TO PUSH THROUGH THE
NATURE COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE AROUND THE TAMPA BAY
AREA BY AROUND 7AM. BY THE AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE IT IN SW FLORIDA
AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA BY THE EVENING. WE WILL SEE
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT SADLY TOTALS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY BELOW HALF OF INCH. THIS MEANS WE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PUT
A DENT INTO OUR ONGOING DROUGHT.
I HOPE EVERYONE DIDN'T PUT UP ALL THEIR WINTER CLOTHES YET BECAUSE
WE WILL SEE THAT COLD AIR RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWS MONDAY MORNING FROM THE UPPER 30'S
TO LOW 40'S. HOWEVER WHEN YOU FACTOR IN THE WINDS IT WILL FEEL MORE
LIKE THE LOW TO MID 30'S. THE CHILLY AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE 50'S. OUR COLDEST MORNING
HOWEVER, WILL ACTUALLY BE TUESDAY WHERE WE COULD SEE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AS FAR SOUTH AS HARDEE AND DESOTO COUNTIES. WE WILL
SEE ONE MORE MORNING IN THE 30'S ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WINDS START TO SHIFT
SOUTHERLY.
WE WILL STILL SEE SOME COOLER MORNINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND EACH AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS BACK
IN THE 80'S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 208 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
A FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE MAIN MARINE HAZARDS THROUGHOUT OUR
SATURDAY WILL BE SEA FOG THAT WILL BE LINGERING IN THE GULF. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 20 TO
25 KNOTS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STICK AROUND THROUGH
OUR DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY COMING DOWN MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY
WE WILL SEE WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS BEFORE GOING DOWN TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 208 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WARM AND DRY AIR WILL STICK AROUND AGAIN ON SATURDAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON SUNDAY MORNING. WE WILL SEE SOME
PASSING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY BUT TOTALS WILL REMAIN LOW. DRIER AIR WILL
BE FILTERING IN ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY HOWEVER RHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. EVEN DRIER AIR
WILL REMAIN ON MONDAY ALONG WITH WINDS STAYING NEAR 15 MPH. IF THIS
FORECAST CONTINUES WE WILL SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER MONDAY RHS WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE RISE FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 83 64 74 44 / 0 20 70 0
FMY 86 61 79 44 / 0 0 60 0
GIF 88 63 77 40 / 0 10 80 0
SRQ 81 63 75 46 / 0 0 80 0
BKV 86 58 74 34 / 0 30 60 0
SPG 81 66 75 49 / 0 10 80 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
AVIATION...CARLISLE
PREVIOUS...SHIVELEY
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