095
FXUS62 KTBW 211842
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
142 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THE NATURE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR
THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG FORMATION EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH SEA
FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY OUT THERE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
SCHEDULED TO COME THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE PENINSULA STARTING
BEFORE DAWN AND SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE BELOW A QUARTER OF AN
INCH, SO NOTHING REALLY TO SPEAK OF AS FAR AS THAT GOES. BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY, WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY INCREASE FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A HIGHER FIRE DANGER RISK BOTH DAYS, BUT ESPECIALLY
ON MONDAY ONCE THE LOWER DEW POINTS FILTER OVER THE REGION. THE
OTHER STORY WILL BE THE BLAST OF COLD AIR THAT WE'LL GET EARLY TO
MID WEEK. THE COLDEST MORNING IS STILL FORECAST TO BE TUESDAY
MORNING, AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AWAY FROM
THE COAST AND OUTSIDE OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. SOME PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR NATURE COAST REGION COULD ALSO SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS MORNING. AS FAR AS
HIGHS, THOSE WILL ALSO BE ON THE COOL SIDE, ESPECIALLY MONDAY, AND
WILL THEN RISE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. FOR
TONIGHT, CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DETERIORATE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT, THOUGH THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS.
ONE ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG, WHICH GUIDANCE IS STILL
HAVING A LOT OF TROUBLE WITH. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN ACTUAL SEA
FOG AFFECTING COASTAL SITES, BUT IS HIGHER FOR LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY, SO HAVE MENTIONED HIGHER VISIBILITY WITH POTENTIAL
FOG, BUT GONE WITH LOWER CEILINGS TO INDICATE THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS THAT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING, BUT THE CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES ARE THE
GREATER IMPACT. VFR SHOULD RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT
WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF IT TOOK LONGER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 136 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINES THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY
AND THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT,
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL THEN TURN NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG WITH A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.
ELEVATED WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THEN WILL
DIMINISH STARTING TUESDAY. THE OTHER MARINE ISSUE WILL BE PATCHY SEA
FOG THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW TO MEDIUM IN FOG FORMATION BUT WHATEVER DOES FORM WILL DISSIPATE
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 136 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY, BRINGING A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THEN MUCH DRIER AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST WILL LIKELY SEE THE
LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT, AND AS WINDS
INCREASE, RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY, SO HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR A FEW COUNTIES. FOR MONDAY, DRIER AIR WILL BE OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION AND WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED, THE POTENTIAL
REMAINS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AN UPGRADE FOR MOST OR ALL
OF THAT AREA TO A RED FLAG WARNING IS LIKELY. ADDITIONALLY, SOME
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 65 74 44 56 / 10 50 0 0
FMY 62 78 43 62 / 0 60 0 0
GIF 63 77 40 59 / 0 60 0 0
SRQ 62 75 47 57 / 0 60 0 0
BKV 58 73 34 56 / 30 50 0 0
SPG 67 75 50 57 / 10 60 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL LEVY-
INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND LEVY-SUMTER.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-
HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-
INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL
LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
CARLISLE/WYNN
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